Transcript Highlights:

• earlier forecast.
• . forecast. forecast.
• the end of the forecast period. the end of the forecast period.
• SPGMI<00:10:44.480> forecasts SPGMI forecasts SPGMI forecasts a<00:10:46.800> roughly<00
• in previous budget forecasts? in previous budget forecasts?

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• , the updated load forecast.
• On that transmission forecast, if you think about how this adjusts the forecast to what we showed a couple
• forecast.
• And you look at this forecast, ERCOT alone was forecasting almost 80 gigawatts just inside of ERCOT.
• in this forecast.

Bills: SB438, SB512, SB647, SB648, SB1495, SB2121, SB2145, SB2154, SB2167, SB2184, SB2211, SB2268, SB2349, SB2443, SB2629, SB2702, SB2902

Keywords: SB 438, Texas, State Office of Administrative Hearings, SOAH, administrative law judge, ALJ, public information act, open records, confidentiality, privacy, home address, home telephone number, emergency contact information, social security number, family members, Government Code 552.117, Government Code 552.1175, Tax Code 25.025, public records, government transparency

Summary: The Senate Committee on Business and Commerce met with a quorum and took up several pending bills, voting favorably on SB 1612, SB 2717, SB 1468, SB 1642, and SB 1789. SB 1612 was reported favorably with objections to the local and contested calendar, while SB 2717, SB 1468, SB 1642, and SB 1789 were reported favorably, with SB 1642 and SB 1789 sent to the floor. SB 2717 would create the Texas Energy Efficiency Council; SB 1642 would add an executive director to the Texas Department of Insurance structure; and SB 1789 would establish pole standards and clarify PUC authority and remedies. The committee also heard an ERCOT update from CEO Pablo Vegas on the updated long-term load forecast, which showed a much higher unadjusted growth projection driven largely by data centers. ERCOT described an adjusted forecast using historical delays and lower realized build rates, and members discussed reliability, generation timelines, and the importance of SB 6 for demand response and flexibility. The committee then heard and left pending SB 2629, which would allow condominium and property owners’ association meetings and voting by electronic means; SB 2702, which would let nationally certified professionals test backflow prevention assemblies without a separate TCEQ license; SB 2167, which would let TDLR pause new license applications tied to human trafficking emergency orders or pending SOAH cases; SB 2349, which would exempt short-term leases and certain leasebacks from flood disclosure requirements; SB 2121, which would tighten the data broker registry law; and SB 2443, which would authorize TDLR electronic delivery of notices and other documents. Testimony generally supported these bills as cleanup, modernization, or workforce-streamlining measures, with some members expressing caution about electronic meetings and emphasizing in-person accountability. The committee also heard SB 2902 on coerced debt and identity theft, with testimony from a law professor and family violence advocates supporting stronger protections for survivors and suggesting a police report as an additional proof option. SB 512, a refiled bill restricting money transmission license holders from fining users for terms-of-service violations, also received supportive testimony and was left pending. Later, the committee heard SB 2145 on allowing certain TIF boards to meet virtually in narrow circumstances, SB 2268 on extending Texas Energy Fund loan deadlines in some cases, SB 1495 creating an EV supply equipment advisory board, SB 2154 regulating delivery network companies under a statewide framework, SB 2184 lowering the age for pyrotechnic operator and fireworks display permits from 21 to 18, SB 2211 on combining data centers, power generation, and produced-water desalination projects, and SB 647 on title theft protections and clerk authority to refuse fraudulent filings. Most of these bills were left pending after brief testimony and questions, with members focusing on reliability, regulation, and safeguards against fraud.

Transcript Highlights:

• forecasts, just showing that our forecast is relatively similar to the others.
• And then the aged forecast is actually forecasted to continue to decline slightly.
• This forecast is up 4%.
• And then the aged forecast is actually forecasted to continue to decline slightly.
• This forecast is up 4%. The actuals this forecast is up 4%.

Summary: The Ways and Means Committee held a work session covering the state revenue outlook, caseload forecasts, wildfire costs, budget balance, tort liability, water supply, and pension policy. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reported modest near-term U.S. growth, no near-term Washington employment growth in 2026, continued personal income growth, and elevated inflation, with tariffs and federal policy cited as major risks. Revenue forecasts were slightly improved for the current biennium by about $105 million but down about $185 million for the next biennium. Members asked about income inequality and housing permits; staff said personal income is an aggregate measure and housing production remains below long-term needs. The Caseload Forecast Council then reported that most forecasts were unchanged or only slightly changed, but several programs increased, including Washington College Grant, Working Connections, aged/blind/disabled cash grants, nursing homes, home and community services, and developmental disabilities personal care. The largest policy-driven change was in Medicaid low-income adult caseloads, where federal H.R. 1 was projected to reduce coverage substantially through narrower eligibility, community engagement requirements, and shorter eligibility periods. The committee also heard a wildfire funding update and a 2025 fire season review. Staff explained that the state budgets $93 million annually for suppression and uses supplemental appropriations for costs above that level, with an estimated state supplemental need of about $139 million for the current year. Department of Natural Resources officials said 2025 fire activity remained below the 10-year average in acres burned, but fires were more complex and closer to communities, contributing to higher residence loss. They described expanded use of aircraft, firefighters from other states, corrections crews, and the Arcadia 20 hand crew, and said the state did not need National Guard ground support this year. A budget preview then showed that the near general fund outlook had worsened after vetoes, lapses, and forecast changes, and that maintenance-level costs alone would leave a projected negative balance by fiscal year 2027 and about $4.3 billion by fiscal year 2029, before any policy decisions. Jason Seams, the state risk manager, reported a sharp rise in tort claim costs, with indemnity expenses nearly doubling from fiscal year 2023 to 2025 and DCYF accounting for most of the increase. He said the state self-insurance liability account has run deficits for four straight biennia and is now facing nearly $600 million in deficits, driven largely by a surge in DCYF claims, especially juvenile rehabilitation and long-running sex abuse cases. Members asked about the role of old claims, comparisons with other states, excess insurance, and whether more Attorney General staff could reduce special assistant attorney general costs. The committee then shifted to water policy, hearing from tribal leaders, Ecology, and the Washington Water Trust. Tribal witnesses emphasized overappropriation, declining flows, climate impacts, and the need for legislative oversight and tribal participation in water policy. Ecology described major projects in the Odessa sub-area, Yakima Basin, and Dungeness, along with the need for storage, recharge, conservation, and policy changes to support water supply development. The Washington Water Trust argued that climate change is reducing summer flows and that the state needs more funding, enforcement, and long-term commitment to restore instream flows. The final item was a pension update on LEOFF 1 surplus assets; staff reviewed two 2025 bills that would have merged or restructured the plan and used surplus assets, but neither passed, and instead the budget directed the Select Committee on Pension Policy to study the issue and report back.

Transcript Highlights:

• , the updated load forecast.
• On that transmission forecast, if you think about how this adjusted forecast compares to what we showed
• forecast.
• And you look at this forecast, ERCOT alone was forecasting almost 80 gigawatts just inside of ERCOT.
• "So in the last forecast, those concerns were not addressed in the last forecast.

Bills: SB438, SB512, SB647, SB648, SB1495, SB2121, SB2145, SB2154, SB2167, SB2184, SB2211, SB2268, SB2349, SB2443, SB2629, SB2702, SB2902

Keywords: SB 438, Texas, State Office of Administrative Hearings, SOAH, administrative law judge, ALJ, public information act, open records, confidentiality, privacy, home address, home telephone number, emergency contact information, social security number, family members, Government Code 552.117, Government Code 552.1175, Tax Code 25.025, public records, government transparency

Summary: The Senate Committee on Business and Commerce met with a quorum and first voted out several pending bills. Senate Bill 1612 was reported favorably to the full Senate with objections sent to the local and contested calendar. The committee then adopted committee substitutes and favorably reported Senate Bills 2717, 1468, 1642, and 1789, with 1642 and 1789 sent to the floor. SB 2717 would create the Texas Energy Efficiency Council and add agencies to it; SB 1468 and SB 1642 were discussed as changes affecting utility and insurance-related structures; and SB 1789 would establish pole standards, with the author saying it would clarify PUC authority and create more practical statewide standards. The committee also heard an ERCOT update from Pablo Vegas, who said Texas load growth remains strong but ERCOT is adjusting its large-load forecast downward using historical delays and realization rates for data centers and other large loads. He said the adjusted forecast is still very high, but more realistic for planning, and members discussed reliability, generation timelines, demand response, and the role of Senate Bill 6 in helping model large data centers as flexible load. The committee then took testimony on a series of bills and left most pending after public comment. SB 2629 would allow condominium and property owners associations to hold meetings and vote electronically; testimony supported it as a way to improve access, though some members expressed concern about overuse of virtual meetings. SB 2702 would let nationally certified professionals test backflow prevention assemblies instead of requiring a separate TCEQ license, and was supported as a workforce and public health measure. SB 2167 would let TDLR pause new massage-establishment license applications when an applicant is subject to a human trafficking emergency order or pending SOAH case. SB 2349 would exempt short-term residential leases and certain leasebacks from floodplain disclosure requirements while allowing the notice to be included in the lease packet. SB 2121 would tighten the data broker registry law from the prior session, and SB 2443 would allow TDLR to use electronic delivery for notices and contested-case documents. Additional bills focused on consumer protection, housing, and regulatory administration. SB 2902 would help victims of coerced debt and identity theft stop collection efforts by requiring proof such as a court order or FTC report; advocates said it would protect survivors while still preventing fraud. SB 512 would bar money transmission license holders from fining users for terms-of-service violations in a way that forfeits account funds, and supporters framed it as a protection against private financial penalties. SB 2145 would allow public improvement districts and tax increment finance districts to meet virtually with at least one member physically present, while SB 2268 would give the PUC flexibility to extend Texas Energy Fund loan deadlines in certain cases. SB 1495 would create an advisory board for electric vehicle supply equipment standards, SB 2154 would extend statewide regulation to delivery network companies, SB 2184 would lower the age for pyrotechnic operator and fireworks display licenses from 21 to 18, SB 438 would expand confidentiality protections for SOAH administrative law judges, SB 2211 would treat digital products and desalinated water as industrial products to support combined energy-water projects, and SB 647 would strengthen title-theft protections by improving notice and clerk authority to reject fraudulent filings. Most of these bills were left pending after testimony, and several drew support from industry, consumer, or advocacy witnesses along with some member concerns about electronic meetings, licensing, and data accuracy.

Transcript Highlights:

• That becomes our base forecast.
• the ERCOT adjusted forecast.
• forecast behind it.
• Changes or the forecast itself. First of all, I want to thank you for that updated forecast.
• The last forecast, those concerns were not addressed in the last forecast.

Bills: SB 438, SB 512, SB 647, SB 648, SB 1495, SB 2121, SB 2145, SB 2154, SB 2167, SB 2184, SB 2211, SB 2268, SB 2349, SB 2443, SB 2629, SB 2702, SB 2902

Keywords: SB 438, Texas, State Office of Administrative Hearings, SOAH, administrative law judge, ALJ, public information act, open records, confidentiality, privacy, home address, home telephone number, emergency contact information, social security number, family members, Government Code 552.117, Government Code 552.1175, Tax Code 25.025, public records, government transparency

Summary: The meeting of the committee commenced with the establishment of a quorum, where members discussed and voted on five significant bills related to energy efficiency, insurance regulation, and public utility governance. Notably, Senate Bill 2717 was presented, incorporating feedback to foster collaboration among various state agencies for improved energy efficiency performance. This was followed by a detailed discussion on Senate Bill 1642, which proposed changes to the Texas Department of Insurance's executive structure to optimize management and consumer focus. Each bill saw active participation from senators who moved to adopt committee substitutes for clarity and responsiveness to stakeholder concerns, indicating a proactive approach to legislative issues.

Transcript Highlights:

• So once we adopt an initial are preliminary forecasts by district, they review those initial forecasts
• Maybe more than the forecast itself. It can be data. It can be the forecasts.
• So relative to our forecast. We adjust made in August. We adopted our new forecasts.
• So we brought the overall forecast down.
• or has it impacted the forecast as of yet?

Transcript Highlights:

• <00:22:38.880> the<00:22:39.000> forecast portion of the forecast the forecast portion
• of the forecast the forecast assumes<00:22:40.159> that<00:22:40.559> as<00:22:40.760>
• <00:28:29.200> so<00:28:29.440> the forecast um in every forecast so the forecast um
• You can apply forecast CPI.
• <00:56:54.359> um<00:56:54.799> CPI forecast um CPI forecast um CPI uh<00:56:57.359>

Bills: HF3

Keywords: legislative auditor, reporting, accountability, state finance, executive agency oversight, 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• Minnesota Management and Budget officials released the November 2025 budget and economic forecast on
• And why is there another budget forecast coming up in February?
• So the February forecast, like I said, we think of it as the refining forecast.
• So the November had the prior forecast.
• Um, and of it as the refining forecast.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• So the November forecast measures the difference between the end-of-session forecast, which is the February
• Notably, not in this forecast or even in the February forecast are the work requirements that we need
• Notably, not in this forecast or even in the February forecast are the work requirements that we need
• Notably, not in this forecast or even in the February forecast are the work requirements that we need
• And so that is not in this forecast.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• The February forecast reflects changes in projected spending for forecasted programs operated by DHS
• relative to the projections from the previous November forecast, and the difference between the two forecasts
• . um the forecast um the forecast covers<00:01:43.280> also<00:01:43.640> another<00:01
• 29 um and for the record forecasted 29 um and for the record forecasted programs<00:02:05.719>
• changes so looking across the forecast changes so looking across the forecast we<00:08:42.959>

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• our FY26 forecast.
• forecasts.
• Than the FY26 forecast. Corporate and business forecast.
• We forecast FY26 forecast... So allow me to recap.
• forecast.

Keywords: 995, all

Summary: The Senate and House Ways and Means chairs opened the FY 2027 consensus revenue hearing by emphasizing the need for a balanced, fiscally responsible budget amid federal funding cuts, health care cost pressures, and uncertainty around the federal tax law changes referred to as OB3. They also noted the state’s current revenue performance is slightly above benchmark and paid tribute to the late Representative Anne Margaret Ferranti. Secretary of Administration and Finance Matthew Gorkowitz echoed the call for caution, saying Massachusetts has protected core services while building reserves and that the FY27 budget process begins with a careful revenue estimate. Department of Revenue Commissioner Jeff Snyder, along with DOR staff, presented FY26 and FY27 tax forecasts and identified major drivers and risks: OB3’s negative impact on state revenue, surtax collections, labor market conditions, capital gains, and corporate/business excise taxes. DOR estimated OB3 would reduce FY26 revenue by about $664 million and FY27 by about $282 million, while surtax and capital gains were expected to remain strong in FY26 but soften in FY27. Members questioned the outlook for surtax, capital gains, and the potential fiscal effect of a ballot question reducing the income tax rate from 5% to 4%; DOR said that proposal could cost roughly $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion annually, with a smaller but still significant impact in FY27 because of phase-in timing. Treasurer Deb Goldberg testified next on the stabilization fund, lottery, PRIM, unclaimed property, and the Alcoholic Beverages Control Commission. She reported the rainy day fund at about $8.1 billion, said the lottery was on track for $1.5 billion in FY26 net profit and projected $1.25 billion in FY27, and highlighted that iLottery is expected to launch in summer 2026 with revenue beginning in FY27 and dedicated to child care initiatives. She also described strong PRIM performance and record unclaimed property returns, while members asked about the child care use of iLottery revenue, multilingual outreach, and the economic impact of expanded liquor licensing. Mass Taxpayers Foundation President Doug Howgate and Tufts’ Evan Horowitz then offered differing revenue outlooks and policy warnings. Howgate projected modest growth, cautioned against overusing reserves for ongoing obligations, and urged caution on federal tax conformity changes and health care spending pressures. Horowitz projected higher FY26 and FY27 revenues than other witnesses, warned that the surtax and capital gains make the tax system more volatile, and said a 4% income tax ballot question could reduce FY27 revenues by roughly $800 million to $1 billion. He also flagged the rent control ballot question as a potential risk to municipal finance and suggested the state consider giving a permanent home to the independent revenue model used by Alan Clayton-Matthews.

Transcript Highlights:

• Last year, as we spoke about, that forecast came in quite a bit higher than historical forecasts.
• According to that forecast, lots of growth is anticipated.
• The original, unadjusted transmission provided forecast.
• we did on the transmission lower load forecast.
• To the concern that you raise, if this forecast is wrong—and it could be; it probably is—every forecast

Bills: HB1951, HB2715, HB3092, HB3237, HB3278, HB3511, HB3592, HB3675, HB3778, HB3782, HB3826, HB3970, HB4016, HB4049, HB4341, HB4344, HB4406, HB4427

Keywords: collective bargaining, public works, government contracts, labor agreements, state funding, removal from office, political subdivisions, local government, judicial proceedings, administrative judicial region, electric transmission, public convenience, landowner consent, utility regulation, energy infrastructure, energy consumption, higher education, governmental entities, sustainability, electricity reduction

Transcript Highlights:

• In the past, we have continued to subscribe to a couple of forecasting services that inform the forecast
• Basically, I'll go into the S&P forecast, a competing forecast to Moody's.
• Similar unemployment forecasts are notable, but the S&P forecast did not impact the unemployment rate
• Moving on to Slide 40, as with any forecast, no forecast is absent risks.
• Our forecast... Our forecasters are indicating that we're very close to a recession.

Transcript Highlights:

• from the forecast we had before.
• And all four principals must agree on which of the forecasts to adopt that become the basis for our forecast
• So they all feed into the forecast. Thank you.
• the last forecast was they based on.
• Baker's forecast and what your forecast is? Senator, that's a good question.

Summary: The Senate Committee on Finance and Tax convened with a quorum present, heard an introductory presentation of committee staff, and then received a staff briefing from Azar Khan on Florida’s state tax structure and revenue outlook. The presentation covered fiscal year 2023-2024 revenues, noting more than $127 billion in total state revenue, with general revenue exceeding $48 billion and sales and use tax making up the largest share. It also compared Florida’s tax burden to other states, highlighted Florida’s low per-capita revenue ranking and strong business formation numbers, and reviewed major and minor revenue sources, tax rates, and the revenue estimating conference process. Members asked about what drives revenue growth, including population, tourism, construction, and auto sales, and about Florida’s regressivity, corporate income tax participation, and investment earnings on state balances. Khan said the state’s revenue picture remains positive and stable, but that future growth is slower than during the COVID-era spike; he also explained that some negative forecast changes were tied to legislative actions such as the insurance premium tax credit, while others reflected lower tobacco consumption and severance activity. He noted that revenue and spending forecasts are separate and that budget-side growth is driving concerns raised in other state economic projections. The committee also discussed possible tax package ideas for the upcoming session, including tax holidays and homeowner relief, but no specific proposals were acted on. The chair announced the committee would not meet the following week and that the next meeting would be in week three of February. The meeting concluded with no objections to a motion to adjourn.

Transcript Highlights:

• And so those And what the new forecast is for 26-27.
• And so those forecasts for 25-26 are roughly $500 million more than the forecast we had for that fiscal
• So there's a little bit of addition to the forecast.
• And so it introduces a lot of risk to the forecast.
• And so those forecasts incorporate all of that data.

Bills: S0110, S0434, S0856

Keywords: property assessment, wind damage, home improvements, real estate, tax exemption, Florida statutes, ad valorem taxes, property listings, tax estimation, disclosure, Florida, residential property

Summary: The committee heard and passed three bills before moving to a staff presentation on the state revenue forecast and the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act. SB 856, by Senator DeSantis? [sic], would require online real estate listing platforms to display estimated property taxes for residential properties using prescribed methods and DOR-developed formulas rather than the current owner’s tax bill. Supporters from county, city, and property appraiser groups said the bill would improve transparency and help homebuyers avoid surprise tax and escrow increases. The bill was reported favorably after debate about making sure the estimate appears on realtor and platform sites for first-time buyers. SB 110, by Senator Arrington, was amended and then reported favorably. The bill clarifies that people holding 98-year-or-longer residential leases remain eligible for the homestead tax exemption even if the lease ends upon the tenant’s death, aligning those leaseholds with life estates for estate-planning purposes. The amendment, supported by the Florida Bar’s real property, probate and trust law section, clarified that lease provisions terminating at death are valid under current law. SB 434, by Senator Leak, was also reported favorably; it would prevent property tax assessments from reflecting increased just value attributable to wind-hardening improvements such as stronger roof attachments, shutters, and roof-to-wall reinforcements. The committee then received an update from staff director Azar Khan on the new general revenue forecast. He said collections had been running slightly above estimate overall, but the Revenue Estimating Conference reduced corporate income tax projections because of weaker recent collections and uncertainty around tariffs, while increasing some other revenue sources. Members then discussed the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which staff said would significantly reduce Florida corporate income tax revenue, with a large first-year impact driven by retroactive provisions such as bonus depreciation, research expensing, and business interest deductions. Senators and the appropriations chair said the forecast and federal changes would affect budget planning, and the committee adjourned after noting the bills had been favorably reported and the meeting was complete.

Transcript Highlights:

• is for 25-26, and what the new forecast is for 26-27.
• And so those forecasts for 25-26 are roughly $500 million more than the forecast we had for that fiscal
• So there's a little bit of addition to the forecast.
• And so it introduces a lot of risk to the forecast.
• And so those forecasts incorporate all of that data.

Summary: The committee took up three tax-related bills and a staff presentation on the state revenue forecast and the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act. SB 856, by Senator DeSigley, would require online real estate listing platforms to display estimated property taxes using state-prescribed methods rather than the current owner’s taxes. Supporters from county, city, and property appraiser groups said the bill would improve transparency for homebuyers, especially first-time buyers and those facing large tax increases after a homestead cap reset. Senators discussed ensuring the estimate appears directly on listing platforms. The bill was reported favorably. The committee then considered SB 110, by Senator Arrington, which clarifies that people holding 98-year-or-longer residential leases remain eligible for the homestead exemption even if the lease ends upon death, aligning such leases with life estates for estate-planning purposes. An amendment was adopted to clarify that leases terminating at the lessee’s death are valid under current law. The Florida Bar’s Real Property, Probate, and Trust Law Section supported the bill, and Senator Gates noted its importance for long-term leaseholders on barrier islands. The amended bill was reported favorably. SB 434, by Senator Leak, would prevent property tax assessments from increasing because of improvements made to harden homes against wind damage, such as stronger roof attachments, shutters, and secondary water barriers. The sponsor said homeowners should not be penalized for resilience upgrades, and the bill was also reported favorably. Staff director Mr. Khan then reviewed the latest general revenue forecast, noting collections were running about $230 million above prior estimates through November and that the new forecast added roughly $500 million in the first budget year, with a smaller increase in the second year. He said corporate income tax was the main weakness in the forecast, due to softer collections and uncertainty around tariffs, while other sources were generally stronger. In the second half of the presentation, he explained that the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act would significantly affect Florida’s corporate income tax base if fully conformed to, with an estimated $3.5 billion general revenue impact in fiscal year 2026-27, largely because of retroactive provisions such as bonus depreciation and research expensing. Senators and the appropriations chair discussed the budget implications, including possible ways to limit the impact through decoupling or prospective treatment. No votes were taken on the forecast presentation, and the committee adjourned after members requested to be recorded as voting in favor on SB 856 and SB 110.

Transcript Highlights:

• We've never included that in our forecast before.
• Tailor a forecast going forward based on that information.
• So in our forecast, we would be able to produce this.
• are going to be adjusted to match that new forecast.
• will be changing as soon as we adopt that new forecast.

Summary: The Senate Committee on Finance and Tax met to hear a presentation from Amy Baker on the state’s ad valorem property tax forecast and how the revenue estimating conference handles property-tax-related impact analyses. Baker explained that the conference process requires unanimous consensus, that the revenue estimating conference produces the state’s official forecast, and that her office recently overhauled the ad valorem model to use a bottom-up, county-by-county approach with separate modeling for county and school rolls, confidential parcels, and detailed categories such as homestead, non-homestead, residential, non-residential, and agricultural property. Baker walked through the current baseline numbers and the main components of taxable value, emphasizing the role of homestead differentials, especially Save Our Homes and portability, and homestead exemptions. She noted that differentials remove a large share of homestead value statewide, with especially large effects in South Florida and along the east coast, while exemptions are concentrated more heavily in northern and fiscally constrained counties. She also explained that many parcels have little or no remaining taxable value, while a smaller number of parcels hold a large share of taxable value, which makes exemption proposals highly uneven in their effects. The committee discussed how impact conferences evaluate proposed constitutional amendments or bills by measuring the change from the baseline forecast, converting taxable-value changes into tax-dollar losses using county millage rates, and then expressing results in cash and recurring terms. Baker stressed that impact analyses do not address broader budgetary effects or local government replacement decisions, and that each proposal is analyzed as a standalone measure rather than in combination with others. Senators asked about seven House property-tax proposals already analyzed, the availability of those reports online, possible interactions if multiple proposals passed, and whether property-tax relief could stimulate the economy enough to offset revenue losses. Baker said the economic effects would be highly proposal- and county-specific and that any budgetary analysis would require separate work beyond the conference process. The committee took no substantive action beyond receiving the presentation and then adjourned.

Transcript Highlights:

• does get addressed in the forecast that does get addressed in the forecast and<00:26:29.559> MB
• It wasn't included in the forecast.
• It wasn't included in the forecast.
• It wasn't included in the forecast.
• of our budget and economic forecast of our budget and economic forecast because<00:56:42.000>

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the fiscal note process, prompted by concerns raised in a prior hearing about the fiscal note for the Paid Family and Medical Leave law. Chair Marty, Senator Pratt, and Senator Wiklund said the goal was not to revisit the bill itself but to strengthen understanding of fiscal note standards, the role of the Legislative Budget Office (LBO), and communication with agencies. They emphasized bipartisan concern that fiscal notes must be respected and that the process should be clearer going forward. Christian Larison of the LBO explained that the 2024 fiscal note issues stemmed from three main problems: choosing the proper baseline for a program that had not yet started, interpreting the seven-day qualifying event/waiting period, and determining whether DEED could adjust the first-year premium rate. He said the LBO, DEED, MMB, and House fiscal staff ultimately used the October 2023 actuarial analysis as the baseline because it was the most recent and likely most accurate estimate, but that choice meant the fiscal note did not show the difference from the 2023 enacted budget. He also described how DEED later interpreted the seven-day provision as a waiting period and how the premium-rate assumptions affected the fiscal impact. Larison outlined possible responses, including more assertive early communication from the LBO, providing more detailed analysis in unusual cases, and possibly creating a working group through the LBO Oversight Commission to consider new standards for substantial assumption changes, complex new programs, and third-party actuarial work. He also noted the LBO has authority to issue unapproved fiscal notes if standards are not met, though it has not used that authority. In questions, Senator Murphy asked about protecting the credibility of fiscal notes, and Larison said maintaining independence, objectivity, and consistent standards is central to the LBO’s role. No votes or formal actions were taken at the hearing.

Transcript Highlights:

• The remaining forecasted revenues of $3.6 billion, that assumes that we would just meet the forecast
• January had been a little bit below forecast.
• That's really a hard type to forecast.
• And we did ask them this time around to provide an extra forecast or earlier forecast.
• And that was the forecast for the 25-27 biennium.

Summary: The Government Finance Committee met with new leadership, approved the December 11 minutes, and received a series of informational updates on the state’s finances and related policy issues. The Office of Management and Budget reported the general fund is tracking very close to forecast, with revenues about $2 million above forecast and an estimated ending balance of about $397 million, higher than previously expected. OMB also reviewed balances in major funds, including the budget stabilization fund, legacy fund, foundation aid stabilization fund, social services fund, and strategic investment and improvements fund, and answered questions about oil tax revenues and fund management. The Tax Department provided updates on taxable sales and purchases by county and industry, noting Cass County as the largest county by taxable sales and that retail trade remains the largest industry sector. Tax Commissioner Brian Kroshus also discussed the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its estimated effects on North Dakota income tax collections, explaining that the projected revenue impacts are measured against a 2025 baseline and that some provisions are temporary while others are permanent. He also reported that primary residence tax credit applications were running ahead of last year, with more than 154,000 received so far and an expectation of roughly 160,000-plus applications. The committee also heard fee-study presentations from the Department of Transportation and the Information Technology Department. DOT explained that driver’s license fees cover only about half of program costs and that the shortfall is subsidized by the highway fund, while also noting recent changes such as the blackout plate and motor vehicle excise tax distribution changes. NDIT described its internal service fund model, current billing structure, and possible future changes to simplify invoices and billing frequency. Legislative staff also updated the committee on office space needs in Bismarck-Mandan and on legislative branch space planning, and subcommittees reported progress on fixed-route transit funding and regional jail capacity, including a visit to the Burleigh-Morton detention facility and discussion of future prison bed needs. No formal votes or legislative actions beyond approving the minutes were taken, and the committee adjourned with its next meeting set for June 25.

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast.
• These are areas of the budget that are forecasted, and therefore we have to adjust it to track the forecast
• our education forecast bill. our education forecast bill.
• actual forecast.
• it's the forecast adjustments. it's the forecast adjustments.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all