Keith Bybee — Identifies himself as Division Manager, Budget Policy Analysis, Legislative Services Office, and introduces his presentation on the general fund budget picture.
Ms. Phipps — Identified as the next presenter from the Division of Financial Management who will provide the revenue forecast.
Greg Phipps — Named as the chief economist who helps show the revenue forecast in the future.
Jason Monks — Representative Monks thanks the Chairman and continues into a follow-up question, asking whether the displayed numbers include statutory reductions and the $330 million item.
Jason Monks — Representative Monks questioned whether the corporate tax reduction was being driven by corporations taking advantage of OB3 through quarterly payments and noted that this may be contributing to the sharp decline in corporate tax collections. He then indicated he was eager to hear further discussion and yielded the floor.
Jason Monks — The speaker references a question Representative Monks asked earlier about the $3.30 million sales tax item.
Jeff Ehlers — Jeff Ehlers is addressed as chair/co-chair throughout a continuous budget discussion. The exchange covers questions about the governor’s budget, estimated ending balances for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, whether the budget relies on corpus or interest, and statutory caps on cash-position funds, before transitioning into Aaron Phipps’s testimony.
Aaron Phipps — Aaron Phipps is introduced as an economist with the Division of Financial Management’s Economic Analysis Bureau. Her educational background is noted, including a bachelor’s degree in business economics from the University of Idaho and a master’s degree in economics from the University of Nevada, Reno. She then introduces herself and begins her presentation on the forecast, a reporting shift at DFM, and forecast assumptions.
Kevin Cook — Addressed as Chairman Cook at the start of Aaron Phipps's testimony.
Kevin Cook — Addressed as one of the co-chairs.
Kevin Cook — Kevin Cook is referenced as Co-Chair Cook in a continuous discussion, with repeated mentions identifying him in his co-chair role.
Kevin Cook — Co-Chairman Cook is briefly addressed during the transition to the next witness, with no substantive discussion beyond the procedural handoff.
Kevin Cook — Addressed as Co-Chair Cook.
Kevin Cook — Addressed as Mr. Chairman Cook in the request to elaborate on the bill's impacts.
John Gannon — Asked whether the forecasted corporate income tax reduction includes the conformity bill.
John Gannon — Asked for more information about the difference between the witness's calculations and the Tax Commission's forecast, focusing on corporate income tax revenue.
John Gannon — Representative Gannon asks how the estimate range is divided between personal and business impacts.
Ms. Phipp — The speaker says Ms. Phipp is available on the first floor for questions.
Robert Spindlove — Robert Spindlove is introduced as the next presenter from Science Bank and identified as the senior economist who monitors economic conditions in Idaho and nationally. He then joins remotely from his car while traveling, apologizes for not being there in person, and begins his remarks by saying he will speak for about 10 to 15 minutes and take questions. He frames his testimony around high-level macroeconomic conditions, highlighting the Federal Reserve as a major theme for 2025 and into 2026.
James Woodward — Asked how subprime car loans are playing out.
James Woodward — Senator Woodward asked the presenter to return to an earlier wage growth graph slide and then followed up on the chart’s lines converging, questioning the pattern shown for 2025.
Mr. Spindlove — Mr. Spindlove explained that current distress in subprime auto lending should not be confused with the subprime home lending that drove the 2008-2009 Great Recession. He said auto dealers and others in the industry are already feeling pressure, including slowing growth in new and used car prices that could become deflationary. The chair then thanked him for helping explain the economy to the committee.
Sam Wilkenhauer / Sam Mokenhower (questionable) — Introduced as a labor economist with the Idaho Department of Labor; the transcript contains a likely transcription error in his surname.
Sam Mokenhower (questionable) — Identified himself as an economist with the Department of Labor and explained he could not attend in person because his flight was canceled due to inclement weather.
Mr. Spendlove — Sam builds on Mr. Spendlove’s earlier remarks about labor-market volatility, noting that the federal labor market showed significant swings this year. He then contrasts local conditions with the national picture, citing Mr. Spendlove’s observation that national labor growth was negative in some months.
Jordan Prasinos — Jordan Prasinos of Idaho Power was introduced and then described his role as principal economist/manager of sales and demand forecasting. He explained that he oversees long-term load forecasting, supports the company’s pension and 401(k) investment responsibilities, and interacts with the banking syndicate when Idaho Power accesses financing.
— Addressed as one of the co-chairs; exact identity uncertain from transcript.
Jordan Redman — A member is addressed as 'Representative Wenznowski'; the name appears to be a transcription error and is uncertain.
Mr. Brett Wilder — Introduced as an assistant professor and area extension educator at the University of Idaho, covering farm business management and commodity risk management.
Brent Wilder — Introduces himself as an extension economist with the University of Idaho and discusses agriculture's importance to Idaho's economy.
David Cannon — Representative Cannon was called on by the chair and asked Mr. Wilder a question about how supply and demand works in Idaho agriculture, including whether there is lag time in reallocating assets. Mr. Wilder then responded, acknowledging it as a good question.
Mr. Kyle Brookman — Introduced as the next witness to speak.
Kyle Brookman — Kyle Brookman, a Boise State University representative and teacher, introduces himself and notes he is presenting with input from two other professors on the university forecasting committee. He then presents revenue forecasting estimates, explaining how the committee derives partial-year projections and why they expect revenue growth to slow after a period of unusually strong increases. He emphasizes that exponential growth and other high-return trends do not last forever and that future expectations should be more modest due to diminishing returns and scarce resources.
Dr. Geisler — A committee member from Idaho State whose personal income forecast is being used in Brookman's slide.
Carl — Referenced as the person whose personal income growth estimate is being discussed; identity is unclear from the transcript.
Carl Geisler — Thanked for helping with the presentation; affiliation given as ISU.
Stephen Peterson — Thanked for helping with the presentation; affiliation given as U of I.
Miguel Legeretta — Miguel Legeretta of the Associated Taxpayers of Idaho presents testimony on property taxes and revenue estimates. He explains that his forecast differs from others because large taxpayers and pass-through entities are unlikely to change behavior significantly, and he responds to Representative Gannon’s questions about the differences in revenue projections.
Jeff McRae — Jeff McRae, chairman of the Idaho State Tax Commission, presents the commission’s revenue estimate methodology and key findings. He explains that the model uses recent policy changes, population growth, inflation, and seasonal adjustments, while not attempting to model softer economic factors. He walks through individual income tax, noting record cumulative collections but also increased refunds that affect interpretation, then turns to corporate income tax and sales tax, describing the revenue trends as generally strong and supported by the model’s seasonal analysis. He emphasizes that the presentation is based on historical data and does not yet incorporate impacts from the One Big Beautiful Bill, though he provides an estimated fiscal impact range and notes that conformity effective dates matter. He closes by stressing the need to coordinate implementation with vendors, taxpayers, and the public, and indicates the commission’s general fund estimate is complete before offering to answer questions and provide more detail on the bill’s impacts.
— Addressed as Co-Chair Ellers; likely a committee co-chair, though the exact member ID/name is uncertain from the transcript.
Mr. McCray — The committee thanks Mr. McCray for his time and work.
Steve Miller — Asked whether the analysis helps with the next fiscal year or is more short-term.
Steve Miller — Representative Miller participates in a continuous exchange about power requirements, projected growth, AI-related impacts, and how to mitigate resulting cost pressures. The discussion begins with questions about growth and energy needs, then continues with the witness responding to those concerns and addressing cost-impact mitigation as part of the same broader topic.
Steve Miller — Representative Miller was briefly called on by mistake, then asked whether tariffs have affected global supplies and movement and how the slowdown in Idaho agriculture has affected local markets and dealers. Mr. Wilder then responded directly to Miller’s question.
Douglas Pickett — Identified as the next closest projection, but over the target and apparently absent.
Christopher LaHosette — Introduces himself as a budget and policy analyst with the Legislative Services Office and says he has limited time to present.
Steve Miller — Representative Miller was recognized and congratulated for providing the closest fiscal year 2025 projection, estimated at $5.81 billion.