Transcript Highlights:

• Second, forecasting is central to effective cash management.
• Second, forecasting is central to effective cash management.
• do an economic forecast.
• And then this is their oil production forecast.
• So now next we'll get into the actual revenue forecast.

Keywords: 908, all

Summary: The Leadership Division of the Budget Section approved the prior meeting minutes and then received an update from Senator Jonathan Sickler on the Cash Management Board’s interim work under House Bill 1278. He said the board has reviewed state cash, investments, and liquidity across agencies and concluded the state’s overall mix of long-term and short-term assets is appropriate, with about $35 billion in total liquid assets and investments and roughly 89% in longer-term investments. He highlighted process improvements already underway, including replacing more than 500 six-month CDs with a special-rate savings account to reduce administrative work, and said the board sees opportunities to improve forecasting, automation, and statewide coordination. Members asked about whether the CD change would increase returns, how the Legacy Fund transfer for the homestead tax relief bill affected earnings, and whether more state cash could be consolidated or better managed through BND; Sickler and BND staff said those issues are being studied and may lead to legislation for the 2027 session. Representative Nathan Toman then updated the committee on the Task Force on Government Efficiency. He said the group has focused less on cutting dollars and more on defining metrics and asking how the legislature knows whether programs are working. The task force is pushing a standard set of questions for new or expanding programs—who is affected, expected outcomes, alternatives, how success will be measured, and full funding—and OMB has agreed to require those answers in future budget requests. Members discussed possible use of dashboards, program evaluators, AI tools, and possible rule or statutory changes to require performance measurement. Toman said the task force will continue meeting with agencies such as the courts, university system, auditor, HHS, Commerce, and ITD to identify workflow bottlenecks and potential efficiencies. Phil Davis of Job Service North Dakota gave a workforce update, reporting that North Dakota’s unemployment rate is 2.5% and labor force participation is about 68.7%, both well above national performance. He described Job Service’s 15 workforce programs, including H-2A housing inspections for foreign agricultural workers, the job placement partnership program with DOCR, WOTC, and other federal and state workforce efforts. Davis said the agency served more than 11,000 individuals in 2025, operates nine workforce centers, and tracks outcomes through quarterly and annual reporting. In response to questions, he said job openings data reflect only positions in the system and may understate actual hiring needs, that child care and other assistance programs could be better tied to employment outcomes, and that the DOCR partnership has shown strong results with lower recidivism and higher earnings. He also said the H-2A inspection workload is growing quickly and additional staffing or less frequent federal inspection requirements could help. Allen Knutson then presented S&P Global’s updated revenue forecast. He said oil prices have risen sharply since the prior month’s outlook, improving the state’s near-term revenue picture, though the economy remains volatile and agriculture is facing weaker commodity prices. Based on the updated forecast, total major tax revenues for the current biennium are projected to be about $89 million above the legislative forecast, and the next biennium could be about $500 million higher, though that estimate is preliminary and may change. He also walked through an alternate oil-price scenario showing significantly higher oil and gas collections and a larger Strategic Investment Fund balance if prices remain elevated. Members asked whether another forecast should be requested once oil markets stabilize and about tribal allocation changes in the alternative scenario; Knutson said additional updates are possible through OMB and future forecast cycles.

Transcript Highlights:

• So, uh, we've already discussed the state road fund state-run forecast, state road fund forecast, sorry
• Is the current forecast.
• Growth forecasts have dropped about 1% in the latest forecast from OECD.
• Um, Our forecast, they were provided with the information that was available at the time of the forecast
• There is In our forecast input based on forecasts on oil production within New Mexico, oil and natural

Transcript Highlights:

• So we did account for that in the forecast.
• a hair above, but not below forecast at all.
• about the OMB revised forecast, which is, of course, not an official forecast, but it's what we use
• The forecast was based on a North Dakota price, the legislative forecast, I should say, on a $59 oil
• Again, we'll revisit that in the next forecast.

Keywords: 908, all

Transcript Highlights:

• Times of the year to update the forecast.
• Slide four covers the baseline forecast that we subscribe to that informs the forecast.
• forecast nationally or for New Mexico.
• The consensus revenue group is forecasting.
• our forecast.

Transcript Highlights:

• So we did account for that in the forecast.
• , just a hair above, but not below forecast at all.
• The forecast was based on a North Dakota price, the legislative forecast, I should say, of $59 oil price
• bars show what we had estimated in this forecast.
• Again, we'll revisit that in the next forecast.

Summary: The Budget Section approved the March 18 minutes and received an OMB update showing the general fund is still ahead of the budgeted starting point, but revenues through May are now about $76 million below the legislative forecast, driven mainly by individual income tax and sales tax shortfalls. OMB also reported the budget stabilization fund is above its cap, meaning a transfer to the general fund is expected, and reviewed oil price/production assumptions, noting continued volatility. Members asked about the income tax netting process, the sales tax decline, oil price discounts/premiums, natural gas taxation, and when the executive branch would present its revenue forecast. The committee then acted on several Emergency Commission requests. It approved, as a group, requests for federal mine reclamation funds for the Public Service Commission, an additional criminal investigator FTE and funding for the Attorney General’s office, and a DPI transfer for bridge software costs. It separately approved DPI request 2164 for $500,000 to support the food vendor program after debate over whether the program’s savings were known and whether the money was simply a pass-through. OMB also reported on federal grants, fiscal irregularities, tobacco settlement proceeds, budget guidelines for agencies, FTE pool usage, vacancy savings, and the DAPL settlement, noting the settlement funds had been deposited and that a deficiency appropriation may be needed later to cover remaining accrued interest. Tax Commissioner Brian Kroshus presented on the primary residence credit program, saying participation has grown sharply and that the current biennium will likely need about $431 million, roughly $22 million above the appropriation. He explained how the credit interacts with homestead and disabled veteran benefits, how the 3% property tax cap works, and why county valuations and mill rates vary. The committee also received a Legacy Fund/Budget Stabilization Fund report showing strong returns, and DOT Director Ron Henke received approval for two Flex Fund highway projects on ND 49 and ND 31. Henke also explained remaining Highway 85 funding and said the department is exploring uses for leftover state dollars. Finally, the Department of Mineral Resources reported on abandoned well plugging and site restoration, noting North Dakota remains in relatively strong shape compared with other states, and DPI began a presentation on gap funding tied to the 3% levy cap, reporting 24 districts received $1.8 million in the first year and projecting higher future needs.

Transcript Highlights:

• their updated forecast.
• We subscribe to forecasts from Moody's as well as S&P Global, and locally we subscribe to a forecast
• Chairman, that the consensus revenue forecast forecasters... ...also projecting that we will have approximately
• To our forecast. And then finally, Mr.
• By the consensus revenue forecasters on the previous slide, we do stress testing of our forecasts.

Transcript Highlights:

• The top one was the September forecast, and the below is the January forecast.
• The top one was the September forecast, and the below is the January forecast.
• the the September forecast versus the January<00:53:24.839> forecast<00:53:25.680> the
• This shows the January economic forecast by the 50 U.S. economic forecasting organizations.
• Then our forecast: the top line shows the population, and our forecast is a little decrease.

Keywords: 912, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• We subscribe to Moody's, S P Global, and UNM's Bieber forecast.
• On slide five is detailed for you the forecast for U.S. real GDP growth.
• So the increased forecast for production volumes partially offsets the reduced price forecast.
• could further depress the personal income tax forecast.
• Secretary Props will cover the risks to the forecast a little later.

Keywords: 996, all

Transcript Highlights:

• We will be providing you an update on our revenue forecast, as well as hearing from George Hammond.
• , the probability of meeting either the January forecast or the April forecast really depends on the
• forecast, sort of striped bars right there.
• is more cautious than the January forecast.
• So that's the revenue picture under the updated forecast.

Keywords: 1182, all

Summary: At the April meeting of the Finance Advisory Committee, staff presented an updated state revenue forecast that was more cautious than January’s because of heightened economic uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict and broader national risks. The general fund’s available resources were revised down from $577 million in January to $378 million in the April forecast, with the lower estimate driven by reduced revenue projections while spending assumptions were unchanged. Staff said the outlook depends heavily on how long the Middle East conflict lasts and noted that a prolonged disruption could weaken the forecast further, while a quick resolution could improve conditions. George Hammond of the University of Arizona gave a broad economic overview, highlighting geopolitical risk, elevated oil and gasoline prices, sticky inflation, weak Arizona job growth, and uncertainty around federal policy, tariffs, immigration, and AI-related investment. He said Arizona’s recent job growth has been very weak and concentrated mainly in health services, while most other sectors lost jobs, and he attributed much of the slowdown to low hiring rather than layoffs. He also discussed population growth, noting that Arizona remains above the national average but is increasingly dependent on net migration as natural increase slows, and he warned that housing affordability remains strained even as Phoenix inflation has moderated. Panelists generally echoed the cautious outlook but pointed to some offsets. Liz St. Clair said Arizona’s near-term revenues could benefit from tourism tied to spring training and the Final Four, though higher fuel costs could dampen discretionary spending. Other panelists noted that the federal policy environment, tariffs, and immigration changes are likely to restrain growth, while productivity gains, especially from technology and AI, may help businesses maintain output. Several members also discussed housing, saying single-family permits have fallen while rental supply has improved affordability, and they raised concerns about labor-force growth, wage disparities, and the reliability of recent employment data revisions. No formal votes or actions were taken.

Transcript Highlights:

• . forecast. forecast.
• into our forecast. It's a possibility. into our forecast. It's a possibility.
• These are our forecasts.
• GDP forecast was for zero for 2026. GDP forecast was for zero for 2026.
• Doex. their forecast. Yeah. So this concludes their forecast. Yeah.

Keywords: 912, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• And so we've built everything in our population forecast around that assumption.
• So we've built that into our forecast.
• So we've built that into our forecast.
• We met to adopt the new general revenue forecast.
• So pretty much the forecast that you had during session is the same forecast that you're going to be

Summary: The committee met to hear Amy Baker’s presentation on Florida’s constitutionally required long-range financial outlook for fiscal years 2026-27 through 2028-29. Baker said the forecast reflects slower but still positive economic growth, continued above-average personal income growth, rising wages, and population growth that is increasingly driven by in-migration as Florida’s senior population expands. She highlighted weakening housing-related revenue, especially documentary stamp taxes, softer consumer sentiment, and the expectation that Florida will pass 25 million residents by 2030, with nearly a quarter of the population age 65 or older. Baker said the outlook largely retained the March 2025 general revenue forecast, but the Legislature’s 2025 session actions significantly improved near-term funds available by redirecting or freeing up money, including contingency appropriations and reversions. She noted total state reserves are just under $15 billion, or about 30% of general revenue, and that the budget stabilization fund is at its constitutional maximum. The main spending pressures in the outlook were critical needs, led by a new emergency preparedness and response fund transfer and Medicaid growth driven mainly by medical inflation and behavioral analysis costs in managed care, not by caseload growth. Other high-priority needs were also identified, and Baker said the first year shows a projected surplus, but years two and three show shortfalls, meaning fiscal strategies will still be needed. Members questioned Baker about the accuracy of the forecast, Medicaid managed care costs, the emergency preparedness fund, federal funding assumptions, and whether recent federal legislation was reflected in the numbers. Baker said the outlook is a good representation of the total picture, though the Legislature will likely adjust it as conditions change, and that more information on federal changes would come in later estimating conferences. Senator Trumbull asked about the governor’s veto of $750 million, and Baker said it simply returned to unallocated general revenue rather than being spent or added to the budget stabilization fund. The chair closed by warning members to expect a difficult budgeting process and noting that the committee would adjourn without further action.

Transcript Highlights:

• into the February forecast.
• Um I have a debt capacity forecast.
• . million in the forecast. million in the forecast.
• Um, when we prepared our forecast.
• So 4.05% was what was factored into the November forecast. That increase to November forecast.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• We are going to have a problem with this forecast because this forecast does not take into account the
• We are going to have a problem with this forecast because this forecast does not take into account the
• We are going to have a problem with this forecast because this forecast does not take into account the
• We are going to have a problem with this forecast because this forecast does not take into account the
• We are going to have a problem with this forecast because this forecast does not take into account the

Bills: HF1, HF1754, HF1809, HF1478

Keywords: Office of Inspector General, inspector general, legislative audit, fraud prevention, waste and abuse, public funds, grant oversight, state grants, grant management, whistleblower protection, retaliation, subpoena power, data practices, government transparency, accountability, law enforcement referrals, sanctions, debarment, payment withholding, public assistance fraud

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast compared to our prior study. forecasts.
• forecast compared to our prior study.
• On the regional side, we have difficulty finding long-term forecasts, you know, 10- to 20-year forecasts
• This chart shows, at the far left, the ERFC forecast from our September forecast.
• That seems consistent with the forecast we've seen.

Summary: The Pension Funding Council met on October 8 with introductions from council members and staff, then received a detailed presentation from the Office of the State Actuary on long-term economic assumptions and the state pension systems’ financial condition. OSA reported that the combined pension systems are currently 100% funded on a smoothed basis, with open plans above 95% funded, and that legacy Plan 1 systems remain on a path toward full funding under current policy. The actuaries recommended updating assumptions to 3% inflation, 3.5% general salary growth, and a 7.25% investment return, while keeping Plan 1 membership growth at 1%. They also explained asset smoothing, the role of recent strong investment returns, and the expected budget impacts of the recommended changes. Representatives from the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council and the State Investment Board offered supporting perspectives, generally describing the assumptions as reasonable and consistent with their own outlooks. The council also heard an overview of the Long-Term Services and Supports Trust Program (WACares) from DSHS and OSA. Program staff described the program’s social insurance structure, premium collection, benefit eligibility, and upcoming implementation milestones. OSA reported that the program’s first actuarial valuation showed a positive actuarial balance under the base scenario and recommended no change to the current 0.58% premium rate during the program’s early learning phase, noting that future changes would depend on experience and the program’s risk-management framework. OSA also said the recommendation would remain the same regardless of the outcome of the pending ballot measure affecting investment options. During public comment, a representative of the Washington State School Retirees Association urged continued work on Plan 1 funding and related legislation, while the Association of Washington Cities cautioned against increasing pension assumptions in a way that could raise future employer costs and reduce flexibility for current local government services. In action, the council adopted a motion to maintain the current long-term economic assumptions by a 4-2 vote, adopted the recommendation to keep the WACares premium rate at 0.58% by a 6-0 vote, and then elected Katie Chapman as council chair by unanimous vote. The meeting then adjourned.

Transcript Highlights:

• Fiscal year 2026-27 shows the new forecast for that year, and the change column next to the The new forecast
• It's not our usual driver for the forecast. It's not safe. Our usual driver for the forecast.
• And we have almost 20, 25 years of data, some history, and the five forecast years.
• The new forecast cycle both... ...behind the numbers.
• The new forecast cycle will start in December, and by January, we'll have a new general revenue forecast

Summary: The Senate Committee on Finance and Tax met for its first meeting of the session, with a quorum present and several members excused. Chair Avila opened by framing the committee’s main focus as property tax relief and housing affordability, noting the complexity of any changes to Florida’s long-standing property tax structure and emphasizing the need to preserve funding for schools and local public safety. He also introduced new committee staff member Tamisha Black and thanked staff for summer work supporting analysis of potential proposals, including constitutional amendment concepts and other property tax relief ideas. Staff director Azar Khan then presented an update on the General Revenue forecast, explaining that collections remained above estimate but at a slower pace than the prior year, with recent economic indicators slightly weaker than earlier forecasts. He said the new forecast mostly reflected modest adjustments, with a notable share of the increase coming from earnings on investment rather than the usual drivers such as sales tax or corporate income tax. Khan also gave a detailed presentation on ad valorem millages, explaining the different millage types used by school districts, counties, municipalities, special districts, and water management districts; the rollback rate; TRIM notice and hearing timelines; voting thresholds for adopting higher millages; and long-term trends showing millage rates declining over time even as total taxes levied have increased. Members used the presentations to discuss property tax relief options and the relationship between local property taxes and state revenue. President Passidomo praised staff and Senator Bernard’s summer work on proposals. President Gaetz asked about converting homestead property tax revenue to sales tax and was told the rough equivalent could be around a 2.8-cent sales tax increase, though with important behavioral and distributional caveats. Senator Rouson asked about the decline in corporate income tax estimates, and Khan said it likely reflected changes in national corporate profit expectations and collection patterns, promising a follow-up. The Department of Revenue’s Lizette Kelly confirmed that TRIM data, including adopted millages, rollback rates, and maximum millage calculations, are collected by jurisdiction and can be provided to the committee. No bills were taken up and no votes occurred beyond adjournment, which was adopted by motion.

Transcript Highlights:

• It's a forecasted appropriation.
• But, Miss Hoffer, we're taking a cut to the forecast.
• But, Miss Hoffer, we're taking a cut to the forecast.
• And in the next forecast, I presume ed.
• I know they forecasted this number, that this is going to be where it's at.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• Uh, this is not a normal forecast day.
• hard choices resulted in the forecast hard choices resulted in the forecast that<00:04:48.400>
• Uh in part because this forecast day.
• In fact, more than the forecast today.
• the forecast right now. the forecast right now.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast.
• The probabilistic forecast around that.
• forecast.
• California Energy Commission with a certain distribution around that forecast, the probabilistic forecast
• In other words, to the extent that we are forecasting and able to now better forecast what is available

Summary: The Assembly Committee on Utilities and Energy heard SB 1259, which would require refineries to provide advance closure and remediation planning information, and SB 1425, which would authorize the High-Speed Rail Authority to create a permit process for encroachments in its right of way. The committee also held an informational hearing on California electricity reliability and the future of the Strategic Reliability Reserve. The chair opened by noting the hearing room change, testimony limits, and that the committee would proceed without a quorum at first, then later established quorum for votes. On SB 1259, Senator Blake Spear argued the bill would give communities and state agencies needed information to plan for refinery closures, cleanup, and land reuse, comparing the requirement to estate planning. Supporters, including Benicia City Councilmember Carrie Birdseye and UC Santa Barbara professor Ranjit Schmook, said the bill would help communities facing refinery closures avoid being left without information and better prepare for redevelopment and remediation. Opponents, including the Western States Petroleum Association, the State Building and Construction Trades Council, and business groups, argued the bill could send negative market signals, create conflicts with federal reporting, and potentially accelerate refinery closures. The committee passed SB 1259 on a 7-3 vote, later reopening the roll and recording additional votes before moving it out as amended to Appropriations. On SB 1425, Senator Cortese and sponsor Robert Pearsall said the bill would help the High-Speed Rail Authority manage utility, broadband, drainage, and vegetation encroachments along the project corridor and reduce delays. Labor and construction groups supported the measure as a way to add certainty and speed project delivery. Utilities and local agencies, including LADWP, Southern California Gas, Southern California Edison, PG&E, and others, opposed unless amended, saying the bill needed clearer language on emergencies, existing agreements, and potential impacts on their own rights of way and service obligations. After discussion about emergency language and utility coordination, the committee passed SB 1425 as amended to Appropriations on a 10-3 vote. In the oversight hearing, CEC, CPUC, CAISO, and DWR officials reported that California’s summer reliability outlook is better than in prior years, with substantial new procurement, storage, and demand-response resources added since 2020. They said the state is projected to meet its summer reliability standard and has not needed a flex alert for three straight years, but cautioned that extreme heat, fire, hydro conditions, and federal policy uncertainty still pose risks. Officials emphasized that the current Strategic Reliability Reserve remains important as a backstop, while longer-term planning must address rising demand from electrification and data centers and the eventual retirement of emergency resources.

Transcript Highlights:

• of forecast revenues to forecast<00:04:04.599> expect<00:04:05.760> expenditures<00:04
• :06.760> for<00:04:06.959> the forecast expect expenditures for the forecast expect expenditures
• implications for the forecast.
• 29:43.320> you implications uh for the forecast so you implications uh for the forecast so you
• But if it were the November forecast, what's the order of operations here?

Keywords: 1183, house

Summary: House File 4, as amended, was heard in committee. The bill proposes a constitutional amendment to create a Minnesota tax relief account that would capture projected general fund revenues exceeding 105% of projected expenditures and return those funds to taxpayers, primarily through property tax relief or income tax relief. The committee adopted an amendment to put the bill in the author’s preferred shape, and later adopted a technical amendment from Representative Smith to insert the word “projected” before “expenditures” on line 2.2. Representative Johnson presented the bill as an affordability measure meant to return surplus money to the people rather than create new spending, arguing it would help homeowners and taxpayers if a surplus occurs. Ranna Lee of Americans for Prosperity supported the concept of returning surplus funds to taxpayers but also urged broader tax and budget reforms, including triggers for rate reductions and changes to budgeting practices. Nan Madden of the Minnesota Budget Project and Eric Bernstein of We Make Minnesota opposed the proposal, warning that embedding budget and tax rules in the Constitution would reduce legislative flexibility, weaken public investment, shift costs to local governments, and make it harder to respond to recessions or emergencies. Members raised questions about how the formula would work, who would qualify for refunds, whether corporations with property tax liability could benefit, and how the proposal would handle forecast-based calculations and unexpected events such as pandemics or federal policy changes. House research and committee staff clarified that the bill would need to go to Ways and Means and then Rules to satisfy House requirements for constitutional amendments, and that a fiscal note had been requested and was in process. The committee did not take final action on the bill in the portion of the transcript provided, but the motion before it was to recommend passage and send House File 4 to Ways and Means.

Transcript Highlights:

• And with us to present on this is Director Bailey. forecast that aligns with uh forecasted forecast that
• aligns with uh forecasted programs<00:01:21.840> within<00:01:22.159> this<00:01:22.320
• <00:01:40.960> is to align with the February forecast is to align with the February forecast
• to the different base in the February forecast.
• to the different base in the February forecast.

Bills: HF2995, HF2434

Keywords: human services, funding, appropriations, MinnesotaCare, behavioral health, general assistance, healthcare, personal care assistance, worker retention, disability services, state funding, 1183, house