Transcript Highlights:

• forecast.
• These are areas of the budget that are forecasted, and therefore we have to adjust it to track the forecast
• our education forecast bill. our education forecast bill.
• actual forecast.
• it's the forecast adjustments. it's the forecast adjustments.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• The remaining forecasted revenues of $3.6 billion assumes that we would just meet the forecast then for
• That's really a hard type to forecast.
• That's really a hard type to forecast.
• And we did ask them this time around to provide an extra forecast, or earlier forecast.
• And that was the forecast for the 2025-2027 biennium. caveats with their forecast that things certainly

Keywords: 908, all

Transcript Highlights:

• So there's a larger upward revision to the forecast.
• unchanged from the previous forecast.
• Okay, I'll move on to the economic forecast here.
• Okay, turning to forecast risks on slide 17.
• All of that's distilled and used in our forecast.

Keywords: 996, all

Transcript Highlights:

• And so our revenue forecast... Our revenue forecast is based on our economic fundamentals.
• Again, this comes from the S&P economic forecast. They put out monthly forecasts.
• However, the U.S. is also forecast to decline, and it's forecast to decline at a steeper rate... ...to
• And the forecast moving forward, the forecasts change a lot. They're volatile.
• They are not in the S&P forecast, which is the basis for our revenue forecast.

Keywords: 994, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Finance Committee met with a quorum present and first approved the minutes from the January 15 morning meeting. The main agenda item was the Department of Revenue’s budget and revenue presentation from Secretary Eric Nelson, Deputy Secretary Peter Shirley, and Deputy Secretary Mark Mucco. Nelson said the state remains double-A rated with a positive outlook, the budget includes a 5% personal income tax reduction, and the 2027 general revenue estimate is $5.493 billion, up $170 million from the prior year. Shirley gave an economic overview, saying West Virginia is forecast to see continued but slowing employment growth, continued wage growth, gains in private education/health services and business services, declines in some sectors, improving labor force participation relative to the nation, and strong recent net in-migration. He also noted continued growth in natural gas production and a modest rebound in coal production, though coal faces longer-term demand pressure. Mucco reviewed revenue trends and said 2025 collections were about $5.5 billion, below the prior year but above estimate, with personal income tax and sales tax driving the surplus. He explained that the forecast incorporates the 5% PIT cut and annual conformity to the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including changes such as Section 179 expensing, bonus depreciation, R&D expensing, business interest deductions, and a new manufacturing facility expensing provision. He also discussed the effects of tax credits, severance tax volatility, declining tobacco revenues, and health care provider tax changes tied to federal Medicaid rules. He said road fund revenues are largely flat absent policy changes, and county commission revenues are growing faster than state revenues. Members asked about when new economic development projects like NewCore would appear in the projections, how much 20,000 new jobs would matter, whether the department had a calculator for job-growth impacts, the status of recent tax cuts, road fund growth, tobacco/vape taxation, and whether migration data could be broken down by county. The witnesses said major projects are not yet in the S&P-based forecast but would likely add jobs, wages, and tax revenue over time; they estimated 20,000 jobs would be a significant increase. They also said the state is unlikely to hit the current personal income tax trigger in the near term. No substantive votes were taken beyond approving the minutes, and the committee adjourned after a motion carried by voice vote.

Transcript Highlights:

• YEARS FROM THE FORECAST WE HAD BEFORE.
• IT IS A GOOD SIGN FOR OUR FORECAST.
• WE WERE CHASING THE FORECAST UP.
• WHAT WE LOOK AT IS THE LAST FORECAST.
• AND WHAT YOU'RE FORECAST IS?

Keywords: 999, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• So the Caseload Forecast Council currently predicts the forecast of how many residents will be in our
• So the Caseload Forecast Council currently predicts the forecast of how many residents will be in our
• Well, the NGFO revenue forecast has declined.
• So looking at the NGFO revenue forecast, we've had three revenue forecasts since the March 2025 forecast
• This uses the November revenue forecasts. It uses November caseload and per capita cost forecasts.

Summary: The committee held a work session focused first on juvenile rehabilitation system capacity. DCYF officials said the juvenile rehabilitation population is older, includes more adult-sentenced youth, and has longer lengths of stay, especially for “post-25” youth who must remain in secure facilities and cannot go to community beds. They described overcrowding at Green Hill School, placement limits at Echo Glen and Harbor Heights, staffing turnover, mental health acuity, and the need for more medium-security and specialized mental health beds. DCYF said it is pursuing a Parkland facility proposal, a staffing model decision package, and a broader feasibility study and master plan update. No votes were taken; members were asked to follow up with questions later. The committee then heard on behavioral health system capacity from the Behavioral Health Administration and the Health Care Authority. DSHS described growth in forensic and civil bed need, expansion at Olympic Heritage, Maple Lane, and Brockman, and construction of a new 350-bed forensic hospital at Western State expected to open in 2028. HCA reported progress on long-term civil commitment beds, intensive behavioral health treatment facilities, PACT teams, and intensive residential treatment teams, saying the community-based system is being expanded to support step-down care and reduce hospital reliance. Members asked about whether capacity is right-sized, the difference between facility types, and federal match eligibility for services. A federal funding update followed, covering the effects of H.R. 1 and H.R. 5371 on SNAP, Medicaid, marketplace coverage, long-term services and supports, K-12, higher education, and hemp regulation. OFM and agency staff said H.R. 1 adds work requirements, changes non-citizen eligibility, increases state administrative and benefit costs, reduces Medicaid and marketplace subsidies for some groups, tightens redeterminations, and may significantly affect provider payments and state-directed payments. H.R. 5371 extended federal funding through January 30, 2026 and included some agency appropriations and other provisions, including changes affecting hemp producers. Members asked about SNAP error rates and special enrollment periods. Finally, budget coordinator Mary Monroe gave a 2026 supplemental budget preview. She reviewed the state’s near general fund outlook, noting revenue declines since the enacted budget, the effect of reversions, and a preliminary maintenance-level outlook showing a projected increase in NGFO spending over the four-year period. She said the supplemental will reflect updated caseload and cost forecasts and mandatory impacts from H.R. 1, but not policy proposals. No actions or votes were taken during the session.

Transcript Highlights:

• So I will talk briefly about FTE forecasting.
• We get from the school districts and how that impacted the forecast.
• Initial forecasts provide a basis for budgeting and resource allocation.
• It would cut out a lot of the forecasting.
• It's in July, so you're forecasting. Forecasts are great.

Summary: The Pre-K through 12 Budget Subcommittee met to review how Florida’s Education Finance Program (FEFP) works, receive an update from the Department of Education on the October 2024 FTE survey and third FEFP calculation, and hear from three county superintendents about forecasting enrollment and reconciling scholarship students. The chair explained that FEFP is funded by both state and local dollars, is recalculated multiple times during the year, and is now closely tied to school choice policy. Department staff said the third calculation was still being rerun but should be completed soon, and described the forecasting process as collaborative among districts, DOE, and the Education Estimating Conference. Superintendents from Polk, St. Lucie, and Hendry counties said enrollment shifts, especially students moving to Family Empowerment Scholarships, homeschooling, or private schools, make budgeting and staffing difficult. They said districts often must hold back funds to protect against midyear losses, which affects collective bargaining, staffing, transportation, and classroom organization. Several members raised concerns about duplicate counting, transparency, and whether students receiving scholarship funds can also remain in district classrooms. DOE said districts can access scholarship information through a secure portal and that scholarship funding organizations are paid quarterly, with a new process requiring certification and possible future payment adjustments to reduce duplication. The superintendents urged better real-time tracking of students through a statewide ID or student information system and suggested scholarship students should be funded separately from district FEFP calculations. Members also discussed whether more frequent or daily attendance-based calculations would improve accuracy, though some warned that daily attendance could create new problems for high-poverty districts. The committee also briefly discussed categoricals, including mental health and ESE funding, with DOE saying it evaluates programs through studies, reporting requirements, and legislative direction. No votes were taken; the meeting ended with a motion to rise and adjourn.

Transcript Highlights:

• robust than in the previous forecast.
• On slide 13, we turn to the inflation forecast and interest rate forecast, which are two sides of the
• As the price forecast is down, the production volume forecast has been revised upward.
• Was that included in the risk forecast? Mr.
• Updated consensus revenue forecast.

Transcript Highlights:

• Article 1 are the forecast adjustments for the Department of Education.
• <00:03:22.560> adjustments<00:03:23.040> read, forecast adjustments read, forecast adjustments
• <00:04:07.880> a<00:04:07.920> forecast Article 4 is a forecasted a forecast Article
• 4 is a forecasted a forecast adjustments<00:04:09.000> for<00:04:09.280> special<00:04
• the February forecast. the February forecast.

Keywords: 919, house, all

Summary: The conference committee on Senate File 4282 met with a quorum present and heard a walkthrough of the bill, which contains forecast adjustments for several agencies. Senate staff explained that Article 1 makes education forecast adjustments for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, Article 2 adjusts appropriations for the Department of Human Services, Article 3 does the same for the Department of Children, Youth, and Families, and Article 4 increases special transportation services funding for Metropolitan Council programs including Metro Mobility and Metro Move by $8.9 million in FY 2026 and $10.9 million in FY 2027 to match the February forecast. House staff noted that the House language matched Article 1 but did not include Articles 2 through 4. Representative Youakim presented amendment A26-0180, describing six sections that add provisions on paraprofessional qualifications, aid for tribal contract schools tied to revised permanent school fund distributions, expanded allowable uses of school operating capital revenue to include certain utility costs, an extension of an existing appropriation for gender-neutral single-use restrooms, and two school district fund transfer provisions for West St. Paul/Mendota Heights/Eagan and Maple Lake. Members discussed that several items were no-cost and that some fund transfer language had been previously discussed in committee. The amendment was adopted on an 8-0 roll call vote. After adopting the amendment, the committee voted on the bill as amended. The conference committee agreement for Senate File 4282 passed on an 8-0 vote, and the meeting was adjourned.

Transcript Highlights:

• schools on the T as part of the forecast schools on the T as part of the forecast I<00:03:49.040
• <00:07:20.319> should to clarify which budget forecast should to clarify which budget forecast
• obviously we know from the last forecast obviously we know from the last forecast that<00:41:40.200
• November forecast or the February forecast.
• <01:20:02.320> and<01:20:02.480> so forecast or the February forecast and so forecast

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• <00:14:43.360> and forecast this November 2024 forecast and forecast this November 2024 forecast
• <00:15:45.800> programs estimate for these forecasted programs estimate for these forecasted
• 51.079> forecast<00:15:51.720> published<00:15:52.120> by accordingly the forecast
• dollar in 28 and 29 and the forecasted dollar in 28 and 29 and the forecasted total<00:19:21.760
• piece who does the forecasting piece who does the forecasting<00:21:34.320> for<00:21:34.520>

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• And not all of the February forecast figures are favorable.
• That's @MNSenateMedia. an increase in forecast revenues. an increase in forecast revenues.
• $152 million since our last forecast. $152 million since our last forecast.
• forecast figures are favorable. forecast figures are favorable.
• Hard choices resulted in the forecast Hard choices resulted in the forecast that<00:03:40.360>

Keywords: 918, senate, all

Summary: Minnesota Management and Budget’s February forecast reported that the state’s projected deficit has turned into a surplus, with an estimated $3.7 billion balance for fiscal years 2026-27 and a projected $377 million positive balance for FY28-29. Officials said the improved outlook is driven by a slightly stronger national economy and higher forecast revenues, but they cautioned that the state remains in a strong yet not secure position. A major concern discussed was federal funding uncertainty. CMS has indicated it may withhold $515 million per quarter in Medicaid Assistance reimbursement, and separately notified the state it would defer $260 million in Medicaid reimbursements pending further information. Those potential losses are not included in the forecast, but lawmakers were told federal funds account for about one-third of state agency spending and that budget flexibility may be needed if cuts occur. Speakers also noted that Minnesota still faces a structural budget imbalance despite progress made last session. Current biennium spending is projected to be $68 million lower than earlier estimates, but planning estimates are up $152 million since the last forecast. Several lawmakers emphasized affordability concerns for residents, citing rising delinquency rates, increasing unemployment, flat wages, and the need to focus on tax conformity, vehicle tab fees, and property taxes. Members from both parties said they want to continue working together on budget solutions and spending restraint.

Transcript Highlights:

• caseload forecast.
• And I'm senior case law forecast within CFC for the criminal justice related case load forecast.
• November forecast.
• forecast.
• February forecast—more specifically, about 12% lower than the February forecast—but it is much closer

Summary: The committee heard testimony on the effects of H.R. 1 on Washington’s Medicaid, developmental disability, long-term care, and food assistance systems, followed by a separate discussion of juvenile rehabilitation caseloads and placement capacity. DSHS officials said HR1 could affect home equity rules, immigration-related eligibility, work requirements for some expansion-population enrollees, and provider taxes, while also creating a future opportunity for a new 1915(c) waiver. Advocates and providers warned that any state response that cuts home and community-based services would worsen already thin provider networks, increase waiting lists, push more people into hospitals or out-of-state placements, and strain families and workers. A pediatric behavioral health expert and a supported living provider said Medicaid reimbursement is already too low and further reductions would threaten outpatient, residential, and inpatient services for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities and severe behavioral needs. The committee then turned to SNAP and the state food assistance program. DSHS said HR1 would tighten work requirements and exemptions, end some immigrant eligibility for the federal program, eliminate the SNAP education program, raise state administrative costs, and eventually require Washington to share in benefit costs based on its error rate. Officials estimated large numbers of residents could lose or see reduced benefits, with significant added state costs. Anti-hunger advocates, a food bank director, and a SNAP recipient described the program as essential for low-income families, seniors, and people with disabilities, and said the changes would increase paperwork, reduce benefits, and worsen food insecurity while also harming local food economies. Testimony emphasized that food banks cannot replace SNAP and that work requirements may be difficult to meet for caregivers, people with disabilities, and those facing child care or transportation barriers. In the juvenile justice portion, the Caseload Forecast Council presented the JR forecast, which is currently mostly flat through the end of the biennium but expected to grow modestly over the longer term. Members discussed how policy choices, including the 2019 JR-25 law, have increased lengths of stay for adult-sentenced youth in JR, while diversion and other reforms have affected regular JR trends. A court researcher explained the data available to help forecast admissions and noted ongoing efforts to improve data sharing with JR, AOC, and county systems, though staffing and system-lag issues limit how quickly data can be produced. Juvenile court administrators and DCYF officials described the community-based juvenile justice continuum, rising complexity in the JR population, overcrowding at Green Hill and placement constraints at Echo Glen and Harbor Heights, and the need for more flexible community transition and mental health capacity. No votes were taken.

Transcript Highlights:

• The December forecast for gross receipts tax is virtually unchanged from the August forecast, with just
• forecast.
• Chairman, even though this forecast is slightly revised downward from the August forecast.
• Moving on to forecast risks...
• So this is not sort of a doom forecast; it is a very sobering forecast, and look...

Keywords: 996, all

Transcript Highlights:

• forecasted forecasted programs<00:02:25.800> so<00:02:26.040> diving<00:02:26.280>
• So the main drivers in this forecast are four key areas. other forecasted programs uh I'll point other
• um the changes in the February forecast um the changes in the February forecast now<00:04:58.520
• we're we're seeing in this forecast we're we're seeing in this forecast there's<00:08:51.959>
• this forecast so during the forecast this forecast so during the forecast Horizon<00:35:53.760><

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• the federal government and this forecast the federal government and this forecast does<00:05:04.080
• budget it's a very responsible forecast budget it's a very responsible forecast that<00:10:48.360
• and the February forecast.
• and the February forecast.
• The November forecast and the February forecast, when you look at the out years, those are certainly

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• I'm going to give a slight update on the forecast, the November forecast, but I want to give just a sense
• I'm going to give a slight update on the forecast, the November forecast, but I want to give just a sense
• > but<00:20:48.480> I forecast the November forecast but I forecast the November forecast
• All of those sources increased under the forecast.
• All of those sources increased under the forecast.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• 29 as m&b establishes the forecast 29 as m&b establishes the forecast uh<00:23:29.279>
• bills in our forecast bills in our forecast and<00:51:27.200> certainly<00:51:27.839>
• <00:51:53.400> however<00:51:54.400> um in our forecast however um in our forecast
• Inflation in an economic forecast or a budget forecast, for example in 26-27, there is a number and the
• inflation in the in an economic forecast inflation in the in an economic forecast or<00:53:19.400

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Summary: The Finance Committee met for its first 2025 meeting, with co-chairs Senator Marty and Senator Pratt opening the session and members and staff introducing themselves. No bills were heard; the meeting was focused on orientation and on reviewing the committee’s budget rules for the new biennium. Committee members and staff from both caucuses, Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB), and legislative fiscal offices were introduced before the presentation began. MMB fiscal staff Brian D. and committee fiscal staff explained that budget rules are a nonbinding agreement between MMB and House and Senate fiscal staff that guides how fiscal proposals are tracked and understood. They reviewed the history of the rules, noting that the current document reflects the most substantial update since the rules were first adopted in the early 2000s, and that the 2025 version was reorganized into eight sections after extensive interim work by House, Senate, and MMB staff. The presenters emphasized that the rules are updated annually, are intended to promote consistent fiscal tracking and transparent communication, and are used as guidance for budget bills rather than as law. The presentation highlighted several substantive rule areas: general tracking rules and comparison points for budget documents; appropriation drafting guidance; treatment of transfers, revenues, and inflation; planning estimates and “budget tails”; and rules for extending, canceling, or reappropriating existing appropriations. Staff also described new or revised provisions, including guidance on understanding current-law changes, using Department of Revenue estimates for tax revenue, and treating inflation in the forecast as a general pressure estimate rather than appropriated dollars. The committee was asked to review the updated rules, but no vote or formal action was taken during the portion of the meeting provided.

Transcript Highlights:

• Um, every two years when we have the November forecast followed by the February forecast, because these
• and the February forecast and Mr. and the February forecast and Mr.
• in this forecast on your bill?
• Speaker, and members. numbers that the forecast has set numbers that the forecast has set forward<00:
• Uh there is an forecasted a year ago.

Keywords: 919, house, all

Summary: The House began with a point of personal privilege honoring Master Sergeant Nicole M. Amimer of White Bear Lake, including a House resolution recognizing her military service and sacrifice and a moment of silence. Members then took up House File 4987, which would rename a highway in White Bear Lake as the Master Sergeant Nicole M. Amimer Memorial Highway. The motion to suspend rules and advance the bill prevailed, and the bill later passed 126-0 after supportive remarks from Representatives Olsen and Curran about honoring Amimer and her family. The chamber then considered Senate File 476, the human services policy bill. Representative Noor described it as a broad package covering direct care and treatment, Department of Health policy, aging and disability services, behavioral health, vulnerable adult maltreatment, continuity of care, and miscellaneous policy changes. Representative Schumacher said the bill reflected stakeholder work and added guardrails, especially around fraud and provider processes. Several amendments were offered and adopted, including a technical A13 amendment; an A8 amendment was withdrawn; and an A1 amendment on individualized home supports was also withdrawn. The bill passed 93-39. Finally, the House took up House File 4546, the forecast adjustment bill for the Department of Human Services and the Department of Children, Youth, and Families. Representative Noor said it was a routine biennial adjustment to align spending with the February forecast. Representative Johnson W offered an amendment on foster family information-sharing but withdrew it after concluding it was not germane. Debate focused heavily on the size of the forecast increases, especially in medical assistance and housing supports, with Representative Schultz arguing the bill reflected large cost growth and urging a no vote. Noor responded that the increases were driven by forecasted utilization, eligibility, rate changes, and program integrity changes. The bill passed as amended 93-39.

Transcript Highlights:

• in the current February forecast.
• trends in the current February forecast. trends in the current February forecast.
• entire forecast horizon. entire forecast horizon.
• November forecast. November forecast.
• purposes in the forecast. purposes in the forecast.

Bills: HF3415

Keywords: child care, day care, licensed child care center, license-exempt child care, immigration enforcement, ICE, Customs and Border Protection, CBP, USCIS, Department of Homeland Security, DHS, judicial warrant, facility access, sensitive locations, immigrant families, Minnesota Statutes chapter 142B, 1183, house