Video & Transcript Research : 'forecast adjustment'
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MN
Minnesota 2025 1st Special Session
House Human Services Finance and Policy Committee 2/11/25
Human Services Finance and Policy
Transcript Highlights:
- <00:14:43.360>
and forecast this November 2024 forecast and forecast this November 2024 forecast - dollar in 28 and 29 and the forecasted dollar in 28 and 29 and the forecasted total<00:19:21.760
- have to adjust the benefits that recipients receive, or you have to adjust the amount of people who
- possibilities you either have to adjust possibilities you either have to adjust the<00:19:59.679
- piece who does the forecasting piece who does the forecasting<00:21:34.320>
for <00:21:34.520>
MN
Minnesota 2025 1st Special Session
Session Daily Update: Review of November 2025 Budget and Economic Forecast Dec 11th, 2025
Minnesota House Floor Meeting
Transcript Highlights:
- Minnesota Management and Budget officials released the November 2025 budget and economic forecast on
- And why is there another budget forecast coming up in February?
- So the February forecast, like I said, we think of it as the refining forecast.
- So the November had the prior forecast.
- Um, and of it as the refining forecast.
MN
Transcript Highlights:
- forecast uh SP gmi's Baseline forecast forecast uh SP gmi's Baseline forecast assumes<00:10:27.320
- I'd now like to forecast some of the risks to this forecast.
- Our forecast now assumes that the inflationary adjustments set to occur in 2026 and 2028 are higher than
- Anything outside what is in the forecast would require adjustment at a later date, depending on how quickly
- And we adjusted just like we'll adjust to whatever the current administration does.
KY
Kentucky 2025 Regular Session
Consensus Forecasting Group (12-16-25)
Transcript Highlights:
- . forecast. forecast.
- Now in the control forecast forecast forecast you<00:31:50.399>
can <00:31:50.559>see <00 - pessimistic forecast. pessimistic forecast.
- forecasts as well. forecasts as well.
- This is actually a forecast forecast forecast uh<01:37:49.440>
from <01:37:49.840>a <01:
Summary:
The meeting focused on reaching consensus on official Kentucky revenue estimates for fiscal years 2026 through 2028, using updated S&P Global economic forecasts compared with the September presentation. Staff explained that the updated forecast relied partly on alternative data because of the federal government shutdown, and they walked through changes in national and Kentucky economic assumptions across control, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. The control forecast was described as slightly more optimistic in the near term but more cautious in fiscal 2027 and 2028, with GDP growth revised up for the current year and down somewhat in the outer years. The pessimistic scenario now assumed a two-quarter recession beginning in the current quarter, while the optimistic scenario was given a higher probability weight than before.
The presenters highlighted several Kentucky-relevant variables that changed since September, including weaker manufacturing employment, weaker housing starts, weaker consumer sentiment, and lower expected non-farm employment in fiscal 2026. At the same time, wage and salary disbursements were revised upward in fiscal 2027, reflecting higher disposable income from tax changes, and real consumer spending was expected to be stronger in the near term. They also discussed assumptions about tariffs, business profits, the Federal Reserve, unemployment, oil prices, retail sales, vehicle sales, exports, and consumer sentiment, noting that some indicators were little changed while others shifted materially. Consumer sentiment was attributed to affordability concerns, tariff impacts, and a general sense of malaise, but was expected to improve in later years from a low base.
Members asked follow-up questions about why the forecast worsened in later years and about the consumer sentiment assumptions. Staff responded that the forecast assumed larger take-home pay and refunds from tax withholding changes, along with some easing of tariff effects, which they believed would help offset a negative wealth effect from stock market declines. They also noted that S&P Global’s December forecast, which had already been published, was essentially consistent with the presentation and that the firm believed its earlier assumptions had tracked recent data well. No vote or final action was recorded in the portion provided, but the discussion was aimed at settling the revenue estimates that will underpin the upcoming branch budget bills.
KY
Kentucky 2026 Regular Session
House Budget Review Sub. on Health and Family Services. (1-28-26)
Transcript Highlights:
- We include inflationary indexes and income inflationary adjustments in our forecasts.
- <00:13:38.320>
and <00:13:38.880>I adjustments in our forecasts and and I adjustments - methods forecast.
- So our forecasting methods forecast.
- forecasting uh consensus forecasting<00:13:57.839>
group.
Keywords:
Meeting Start 00:00:00
Attendance Roll Call 00:00:36
Department for Medicaid Services 00:01:44, 958, all
Summary:
The House Budget Review Subcommittee on Health and Family Services met for an overview of the Department for Medicaid Services budget. Commissioner Lisa Lee and CFO Steve Beal described Kentucky Medicaid enrollment at about 1.4 million members, including more than 600,000 children, and said the agency’s 2025 total budget was $20.6 billion. They reviewed enrollment trends before, during, and after the COVID-19 public health emergency, noting that redeterminations begun in 2023 reduced enrollment from its peak but that total membership remains above pre-COVID levels. They also explained the difference between the fee-for-service population, which includes long-term care and waiver members, and managed care members, and gave examples of the kinds of services and diagnoses seen in each group.
A major focus was the governor’s recommended Medicaid budget and the department’s forecast process. Lee said the budget is split into benefits and administration, with benefits covering fee-for-service services, managed care capitation, transportation, and Medicare premiums, while administration covers contracts, personnel, operating costs, and IT-related advanced planning documents. She said the department uses a consensus forecasting group and actuary input, and that its forecasts have been within 1% of actual spending in recent years. The department also said the governor’s budget includes new waiver slots to address waiting lists, a 2% staff COLA, and a 10% phase-down on state-directed payments beginning in January 2028.
Much of the discussion centered on House Resolution 1 and the funding needed to implement its Medicaid-related provisions, including community engagement requirements, six-month redeterminations, and future cost sharing. Lee said the department requested about $35 million in total funds for fiscal 2027, including about $8.2 million in general funds for system changes to the integrated eligibility system, claims processing, notices, and monitoring; and about $11 million in fiscal 2028 for ongoing maintenance, with about $1.6 million in general funds. She said the department expects to seek federal APD matching funds for the IT work. In response to questions, she explained that community engagement would apply to Medicaid expansion members, with qualifying activities including work, school, volunteering, or equivalent income, and that certain groups such as pregnant women, children, caretaker relatives, and some people with chronic disease or substance use disorder would be excluded. She said the department identified roughly 70,000 expansion members who could be subject to the requirement. No votes or formal actions were taken.
MN
Transcript Highlights:
- the November forecast. forecasting. forecasting.
- Technical adjustments and higher forecast for net partnership and S corporation collections further contribute
- adjustments and higher Technical adjustments and higher forecast<00:15:30.640>
for <00:15:30.760 - . forecast. forecast.
- . forecast. forecast.
MN
Minnesota 2025 1st Special Session
House Rules and Legislative Administration Committee 3/5/25
Rules and Legislative Administration
Transcript Highlights:
- And just this past Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its GDP forecast down to negative
- And just this past Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its GDP forecast down to negative
- And just this past Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its GDP forecast down to negative
- And just this past Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its GDP forecast down to negative
- And just this past Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its GDP forecast down to negative
MN
Transcript Highlights:
- >
adjustments of meaningful forecast adjustments of meaningful forecast adjustments because<00 - enough attention to these forecast enough attention to these forecast adjustments<00:58:51.560><
- adjustments and and in terms of forecast adjustments and and give<00:59:04.120>
it <00:59:04.240 - floor that makes these forecast floor that makes these forecast adjustments,<00:59:30.280>
which - know,<01:01:10.680>
that forecast adjustments, um you know, that forecast adjustments, um
AZ
Arizona 2026 Regular Session
04/16/2026 - Finance Advisory Committee
Transcript Highlights:
- , the probability of meeting either the January forecast or the April forecast really depends on the
- forecast, sort of striped bars right there.
- is more cautious than the January forecast.
- So that's the revenue picture under the updated forecast.
- It's adjusted for labor flows across industries and occupations.
Summary:
At the April meeting of the Finance Advisory Committee, staff presented an updated state revenue forecast that was more cautious than January’s because of heightened economic uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict and broader national risks. The general fund’s available resources were revised down from $577 million in January to $378 million in the April forecast, with the lower estimate driven by reduced revenue projections while spending assumptions were unchanged. Staff said the outlook depends heavily on how long the Middle East conflict lasts and noted that a prolonged disruption could weaken the forecast further, while a quick resolution could improve conditions.
George Hammond of the University of Arizona gave a broad economic overview, highlighting geopolitical risk, elevated oil and gasoline prices, sticky inflation, weak Arizona job growth, and uncertainty around federal policy, tariffs, immigration, and AI-related investment. He said Arizona’s recent job growth has been very weak and concentrated mainly in health services, while most other sectors lost jobs, and he attributed much of the slowdown to low hiring rather than layoffs. He also discussed population growth, noting that Arizona remains above the national average but is increasingly dependent on net migration as natural increase slows, and he warned that housing affordability remains strained even as Phoenix inflation has moderated.
Panelists generally echoed the cautious outlook but pointed to some offsets. Liz St. Clair said Arizona’s near-term revenues could benefit from tourism tied to spring training and the Final Four, though higher fuel costs could dampen discretionary spending. Other panelists noted that the federal policy environment, tariffs, and immigration changes are likely to restrain growth, while productivity gains, especially from technology and AI, may help businesses maintain output. Several members also discussed housing, saying single-family permits have fallen while rental supply has improved affordability, and they raised concerns about labor-force growth, wage disparities, and the reliability of recent employment data revisions. No formal votes or actions were taken.
HI
Transcript Highlights:
- So we did take the adjustment.
- The top one was the September forecast, and the below is the January forecast.
- The top one was the September forecast, and the below is the January forecast.
- This shows the January economic forecast by the 50 U.S. economic forecasting organizations.
- Then our forecast: the top line shows the population, and our forecast is a little decrease.
FL
Florida 2026 5th Special Session
Appropriations Oct 8th, 2025
Transcript Highlights:
- So we've built that into our forecast.
- So we've built that into our forecast.
- We met to adopt the new general revenue forecast.
- So pretty much the forecast that you had during session is the same forecast that you're going to be
- In terms of revenue adjustments, we also made some changes in this section.
Summary:
The committee met to hear Amy Baker’s presentation on Florida’s constitutionally required long-range financial outlook for fiscal years 2026-27 through 2028-29. Baker said the forecast reflects slower but still positive economic growth, continued above-average personal income growth, rising wages, and population growth that is increasingly driven by in-migration as Florida’s senior population expands. She highlighted weakening housing-related revenue, especially documentary stamp taxes, softer consumer sentiment, and the expectation that Florida will pass 25 million residents by 2030, with nearly a quarter of the population age 65 or older.
Baker said the outlook largely retained the March 2025 general revenue forecast, but the Legislature’s 2025 session actions significantly improved near-term funds available by redirecting or freeing up money, including contingency appropriations and reversions. She noted total state reserves are just under $15 billion, or about 30% of general revenue, and that the budget stabilization fund is at its constitutional maximum. The main spending pressures in the outlook were critical needs, led by a new emergency preparedness and response fund transfer and Medicaid growth driven mainly by medical inflation and behavioral analysis costs in managed care, not by caseload growth. Other high-priority needs were also identified, and Baker said the first year shows a projected surplus, but years two and three show shortfalls, meaning fiscal strategies will still be needed.
Members questioned Baker about the accuracy of the forecast, Medicaid managed care costs, the emergency preparedness fund, federal funding assumptions, and whether recent federal legislation was reflected in the numbers. Baker said the outlook is a good representation of the total picture, though the Legislature will likely adjust it as conditions change, and that more information on federal changes would come in later estimating conferences. Senator Trumbull asked about the governor’s veto of $750 million, and Baker said it simply returned to unallocated general revenue rather than being spent or added to the budget stabilization fund. The chair closed by warning members to expect a difficult budgeting process and noting that the committee would adjourn without further action.
FL
Transcript Highlights:
- Fiscal year 2025-26 shows Fiscal year 2025-26 shows the new forecast adjusted for measures from the last
- Fiscal year 2026-27 shows the new forecast for that year, and the change column next to the The new forecast
- It's not our usual driver for the forecast. It's not safe. Our usual driver for the forecast.
- So my characterization of what our new forecast is, is a retention of what we had before, adjusting for
- The new forecast cycle will start in December, and by January, we'll have a new general revenue forecast
Summary:
The Senate Committee on Finance and Tax met for its first meeting of the session, with a quorum present and several members excused. Chair Avila opened by framing the committee’s main focus as property tax relief and housing affordability, noting the complexity of any changes to Florida’s long-standing property tax structure and emphasizing the need to preserve funding for schools and local public safety. He also introduced new committee staff member Tamisha Black and thanked staff for summer work supporting analysis of potential proposals, including constitutional amendment concepts and other property tax relief ideas.
Staff director Azar Khan then presented an update on the General Revenue forecast, explaining that collections remained above estimate but at a slower pace than the prior year, with recent economic indicators slightly weaker than earlier forecasts. He said the new forecast mostly reflected modest adjustments, with a notable share of the increase coming from earnings on investment rather than the usual drivers such as sales tax or corporate income tax. Khan also gave a detailed presentation on ad valorem millages, explaining the different millage types used by school districts, counties, municipalities, special districts, and water management districts; the rollback rate; TRIM notice and hearing timelines; voting thresholds for adopting higher millages; and long-term trends showing millage rates declining over time even as total taxes levied have increased.
Members used the presentations to discuss property tax relief options and the relationship between local property taxes and state revenue. President Passidomo praised staff and Senator Bernard’s summer work on proposals. President Gaetz asked about converting homestead property tax revenue to sales tax and was told the rough equivalent could be around a 2.8-cent sales tax increase, though with important behavioral and distributional caveats. Senator Rouson asked about the decline in corporate income tax estimates, and Khan said it likely reflected changes in national corporate profit expectations and collection patterns, promising a follow-up. The Department of Revenue’s Lizette Kelly confirmed that TRIM data, including adopted millages, rollback rates, and maximum millage calculations, are collected by jurisdiction and can be provided to the committee. No bills were taken up and no votes occurred beyond adjournment, which was adopted by motion.
WA
Washington 2025-2026 Regular Session
House Appropriations Dec 4th, 2025
Transcript Highlights:
- So the Caseload Forecast Council currently predicts the forecast of how many residents will be in our
- So the Caseload Forecast Council currently predicts the forecast of how many residents will be in our
- Well, the NGFO revenue forecast has declined.
- So looking at the NGFO revenue forecast, we've had three revenue forecasts since the March 2025 forecast
- This uses the November revenue forecasts. It uses November caseload and per capita cost forecasts.
Summary:
The committee held a work session focused first on juvenile rehabilitation system capacity. DCYF officials said the juvenile rehabilitation population is older, includes more adult-sentenced youth, and has longer lengths of stay, especially for “post-25” youth who must remain in secure facilities and cannot go to community beds. They described overcrowding at Green Hill School, placement limits at Echo Glen and Harbor Heights, staffing turnover, mental health acuity, and the need for more medium-security and specialized mental health beds. DCYF said it is pursuing a Parkland facility proposal, a staffing model decision package, and a broader feasibility study and master plan update. No votes were taken; members were asked to follow up with questions later.
The committee then heard on behavioral health system capacity from the Behavioral Health Administration and the Health Care Authority. DSHS described growth in forensic and civil bed need, expansion at Olympic Heritage, Maple Lane, and Brockman, and construction of a new 350-bed forensic hospital at Western State expected to open in 2028. HCA reported progress on long-term civil commitment beds, intensive behavioral health treatment facilities, PACT teams, and intensive residential treatment teams, saying the community-based system is being expanded to support step-down care and reduce hospital reliance. Members asked about whether capacity is right-sized, the difference between facility types, and federal match eligibility for services.
A federal funding update followed, covering the effects of H.R. 1 and H.R. 5371 on SNAP, Medicaid, marketplace coverage, long-term services and supports, K-12, higher education, and hemp regulation. OFM and agency staff said H.R. 1 adds work requirements, changes non-citizen eligibility, increases state administrative and benefit costs, reduces Medicaid and marketplace subsidies for some groups, tightens redeterminations, and may significantly affect provider payments and state-directed payments. H.R. 5371 extended federal funding through January 30, 2026 and included some agency appropriations and other provisions, including changes affecting hemp producers. Members asked about SNAP error rates and special enrollment periods.
Finally, budget coordinator Mary Monroe gave a 2026 supplemental budget preview. She reviewed the state’s near general fund outlook, noting revenue declines since the enacted budget, the effect of reversions, and a preliminary maintenance-level outlook showing a projected increase in NGFO spending over the four-year period. She said the supplemental will reflect updated caseload and cost forecasts and mandatory impacts from H.R. 1, but not policy proposals. No actions or votes were taken during the session.
MN
Transcript Highlights:
- This is the forecast adjustment from the February forecast. And again, members, any questions?
- So the A25 updates the forecast adjustments article, which is the final article of Senate File 2255.
- adjustments article uh which is forecast adjustments article uh which is the<00:09:10.880>
final< - So this makes adjustments to 2255.
- Both of these were significantly adjusted from the February forecast.
AL
Alabama 2026 1st Special Session
Alabama House Ways and Means Education Committee Mar 11th, 2026
Ways and Means Education
Transcript Highlights:
- You’ll see some adjustments here.
- You'll<00:46:37.520>
see <00:46:37.680>some <00:46:37.920>adjustments <00:46:38.319 - <00:46:38.560>
So <00:46:38.720>we You'll see some adjustments here. - So we You'll see some adjustments here.
Bills:
HB235, HB236, HB565, HB237, HB238, HB239, HB240, HB241, HB242, HB235, HB236, HB565, HB237, HB238, HB239, HB240, HB241, HB242
Keywords:
social media, age verification, minors, under 16, children online safety, online privacy, platform regulation, deceptive trade practice, Attorney General, civil penalties, punitive damages, consumer protection, account creation, algorithmic feeds, internet safety, youth social media, HB236, Baldwin County, Board of Equalization, per diem
OK
Oklahoma 2026 Regular Session
Government Oversight REVISED - HB3852 -Added Mar 5th, 2026 at 10:30 am
Government Oversight
Bills:
HB1739, HB1784, HB1889, HB2116, HB2206, HB3625, HB2939, HB3028, HB3265, HB3313, HB3413, HB3414, HB3415, HB3416, HB3417, HB3418, HB3420, HB3588, HB3748, HB3721, HB3852, HB4132, HB4263, HB4303, HB4311, HB4428, HB4429, HB4434
Keywords:
retirement, law enforcement, disability benefits, pension system, Oklahoma, education reform, local control, student outcomes, curriculum changes, school funding, public retirement systems, pension, retirement benefits, cost-of-living adjustment, COLA, inflation adjustment, CPI-U, Consumer Price Index, firefighters pension, police pension
WA
Washington 2025-2026 Regular Session
House Finance Oct 14th, 2025
Transcript Highlights:
- That final economic forecast doesn't come out until right before the revenue forecast.
- So turning more to our most recent forecast. Again, we do four quarterly forecasts.
- the revenue forecast.
- So turning more to our most recent forecast. Again, we do four quarterly forecasts.
- Largely, this is driven by a reduced sales tax forecast and a reduced REIT forecast.
Summary:
The committee first received a presentation from Dr. Reich on the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), including how the council’s joint executive-legislative forecasting process works, the main state revenue sources, and recent economic conditions. He said Washington’s economy is slowing, with weak employment growth, softer taxable sales, and uncertainty from tariffs, federal spending, and the federal shutdown. He also noted that the September forecast was reduced, mainly because of lower sales tax and real estate excise tax collections, and that the state still expects modest growth rather than a recession. Members asked about whether Washington tends to lag national downturns and how forecast information should affect budgeting; Dr. Reich said the forecast is a revenue tool, not a budgeting decision, and that spending choices remain with elected officials.
The Department of Revenue then presented on Washington’s sales and use tax structure and the implementation of Senate Bill 5814, which expands retail sales tax to several services effective October 1, 2025. Steve Ewing explained how sales and use tax are sourced, how reseller permits and the multiple points of use exemption work, and how the new law applies to live presentations, temporary staffing, investigations and security services, IT services, custom website development, advertising services, and custom software. He said DOR held listening sessions, issued interim guidance, and set up a centralized landing page and outreach efforts to help taxpayers understand the changes. He also described a six-month grace period for certain pre-existing contracts through March 31, 2026, but said penalties and interest still apply under the statute.
Committee members raised concerns about how businesses and individuals will know when a service is taxable, who is responsible for collecting and remitting tax, and how sourcing will work for services delivered across multiple locations or online. DOR staff walked through examples involving accounting services, live lectures, virtual events, advertising campaigns, and search engine marketing, including the use of reasonable allocation and pool codes when exact sourcing data is unavailable. Members also questioned the administrative burden on small businesses and professionals newly subject to tax, and whether additional legislative fixes or relief from penalties and interest may be needed. No votes or formal actions were taken in the work session.
MN
Transcript Highlights:
- , session compared to the forecast, session compared to the forecast, compared<00:04:13.880>
to - operating adjustments. operating adjustments.
- PCA, line 51 is a operating adjustment PCA, line 51 is a operating adjustment from<00:09:14.600>
- million under the forecast.
- 60 million under the forecast. 60 million under the forecast.
Summary:
The working group on the Omnibus Environment Bill opened with remarks from House and Senate co-chairs describing the agreement as a compromise with wins and tradeoffs for both sides, and thanking nonpartisan staff and administration agencies for helping negotiate the package. Staff then walked through the finance spreadsheet, explaining that the agreement met the group’s general fund target by combining new spending with cancellations and fund shifts across the Pollution Control Agency, DNR, BWSR, Metro Parks, the Zoo, the Science Museum, and other entities. Major fiscal items included PCA operating and permitting-efficiency funding, PFAS-related and mercury-related provisions, county feedlot reductions, closed landfill and remediation fund changes, groundwater and aquatic invasive species fee increases, DNR groundwater and AIS spending, ATV trail grants, watercraft enforcement, and several one-time appropriations and extensions for specific water quality and conservation projects.
The policy walk-through covered Article 3’s community grants changes, including a requirement that grants benefit all regions of the state, permission to use some funds for trail maintenance and AIS management, prohibitions on awards to certain entities, and a DNR reporting requirement. Article 4 contained a range of natural resources and environmental policy provisions, including abandoned watercraft seizure and forfeiture authority, higher watercraft AIS surcharges, disabled veterans license fee reductions, a county-based replacement for the shotgun zone, a one-year crossbow extension, a continuous bass season, increased water use permit fees, PFAS sales exemptions for certain products, creation of the Sustainable Foraging Task Force, and a moratorium on DNR foraging rules shortened to July 1, 2026. Article 5 addressed state lands, including an additional Cass County land sale authority.
Article 6 focused on PCA permitting reform, requiring more emphasis on complex Tier 2 permits in annual reporting, giving applicants five business days to fix deficiencies, allowing the PCA to decline expedited permitting when it lacks capacity, and letting the agency retain certain fees if expedited permits are completed early. It also included changes to environmental review procedures, feedlot permitting, and EQB rules. During member questions, Senator McEwen asked about the $952,000 ATV trail appropriation and whether projects must have permits before receiving funds; DNR Assistant Commissioner Bob Myers said no project list had been finalized and that grants would go through the existing process, with environmental review and readiness considered, but he said he would need to verify the exact permitting policy and follow up with the committee.
ND
Transcript Highlights:
- So we did account for that in the forecast.
- So we did account for that in the forecast.
- to that assumption in the forecast.
- in the executive forecast process.
- The forecast was based on a North Dakota price, the legislative forecast, I should say, of $59 oil price
Summary:
The Budget Section met to approve prior minutes and receive a series of budget, revenue, and program updates from OMB, the Tax Department, DOT, DMR, and DPI. OMB reported that general fund revenues through May were about $76 million below the legislative forecast, driven mainly by individual income tax and sales tax shortfalls, though the biennium is still projected to end with a positive balance. OMB also reviewed oil price and production assumptions, the budget stabilization fund transfer above its cap, Legacy Fund performance, federal grant applications, fiscal irregularities, tobacco settlement proceeds, budget guidelines for agencies, vacancy savings, and the DAPL settlement, noting that most of the settlement funds had been deposited but a small amount of accrued interest would require a future deficiency request.
The committee then considered Emergency Commission requests. It approved requests for Public Service Commission abandoned mine lands federal authority, an Attorney General FTE and related funding for criminal investigator work tied to the Office of Guardianship and Conservatorship, and a DPI transfer for bridge software costs. After discussion, the committee also approved DPI’s request for a $500,000 transfer for the food vendor program, despite questions about the program’s savings and cash-flow structure. Later, the Tax Commissioner presented the primary residence credit program, reporting that current biennium costs are expected to exceed the appropriation by about $22 million and explaining how the credit interacts with homestead and disabled veteran credits and the 3% property tax levy cap.
The Legacy and Budget Stabilization Fund Advisory Board reported strong returns for both funds, and DOT sought and received approval for two flexible fund highway projects on ND 49 and ND 31. DOT also updated members on Highway 85 construction and said remaining flex fund dollars were essentially fully allocated. DMR reported on the abandoned well plugging and site reclamation fund, noting North Dakota’s relatively small orphan well inventory, current and projected fund balances, rising remediation costs, and a possible need to adjust the fund cap in future sessions. Finally, DPI outlined the new integrated formula gap funding program, explaining that it compensates school districts that cannot reach the assumed 60-mill local contribution because of the 3% levy cap; the first year’s gap funding totaled about $1.8 million, with future costs expected to grow.
FL
Transcript Highlights:
- And so we've built everything in our population forecast around that assumption.
- So we've built that into our forecast.
- going to move above its normal average anywhere in the forecast horizon.
- So pretty much the forecast that you had during session is the same forecast that you're going to be
- In terms of revenue adjustments, we also made some changes in this section.
Summary:
The committee met to receive Amy Baker’s presentation on Florida’s long-range financial outlook for fiscal years 2026-27 through 2028-29. Baker said the forecast assumes continued but moderating economic growth, with Florida GDP slowing from recent highs, personal income remaining above average, wages continuing to rise faster than job growth, and population growth eventually slowing as the state approaches 2030 and the baby-boomer cohort fully ages into retirement. She also highlighted weakening housing and real-estate-related revenue, especially documentary stamp collections, along with low consumer sentiment as signs of caution in the outlook.
Baker explained that the state’s near-term general revenue picture improved largely because of legislative actions taken in the prior session, including contingency releases, reversions, and other budget adjustments, rather than from major new revenue growth. She said reserves remain strong at nearly $15 billion, or just under 30% of general revenue, with the budget stabilization fund at its constitutional maximum. The main spending pressures identified were critical needs and other high-priority needs, led by a new recurring transfer to the emergency preparedness and response fund and by Medicaid, where rising service costs and medical inflation—especially behavioral analysis costs in managed care—are driving higher expenditures despite lower caseloads and a slightly better federal match.
Members questioned the accuracy of the forecast, the Medicaid cost drivers, the treatment of the governor’s emergency fund, federal funding assumptions, and whether recent federal legislation was reflected in the numbers. Baker said the outlook assumes current federal funding paths continue, that the new federal tax/revenue law had not yet been fully incorporated because agencies were still reviewing it, and that the emergency fund line was calculated from recent appropriations without distinguishing specific uses. She also said the vetoed $750 million did not affect the budget stabilization fund because it reverted to unallocated general revenue. No bills were heard, no votes were taken, and the committee adjourned after the presentation and discussion.