Transcript Highlights:

• and the most recent forecast.
• <00:52:25.880> are the forecasts are the forecasts are optimistic<00:52:27.680> or<
• And so that's why we have this forecast budget deficit now.
• > out when the February forecast comes out when the February forecast comes out there<01:27:14.320
• or the February the November forecast or the February forecast<01:47:05.760> would<01:47:05.960

Keywords: 1183, house

Summary: The Ways and Means Committee began with member and staff introductions, including several new members and committee staff. Representative Zach Stevenson, the DFL lead, objected to the day’s presentation, saying he was disappointed the committee was starting with a group he viewed as aligned with Republicans rather than a nonpartisan budget presentation. The chair responded that the committee had a bipartisan agreement and that hearing a different perspective was appropriate. The committee then proceeded to a presentation from economists with the Center of the American Experiment, with questions held until the end. The presentation focused on Minnesota’s budget outlook, arguing that the state faces a structural imbalance and a projected $5.14 billion deficit in the 2028-29 biennium. The presenters said spending has outpaced revenues, highlighted a large increase in general fund spending since 2023, and argued that inflation-adjusted per-capita spending remains above pre-2024 levels through the forecast period. They said the biggest growth areas are E-12 education and especially Health and Human Services, with HHS projected to become the largest budget category and much of its growth tied to Medicaid and long-term care waivers. The presenters also argued Minnesota spends more than most states on welfare and Medicaid, citing comparisons showing the state near the top nationally in spending per person in poverty and in several Medicaid categories. They said some of the HHS growth reflects policy changes from the 2023 session, while other pressures come from enrollment growth, health care prices, federal debt, and an aging population. No votes or formal committee actions were taken during the portion of the meeting shown.

Transcript Highlights:

• Then the next three columns show the November forecast November 2024 forecast numbers.
• <00:03:12.920> Minnesota on the forecast last week by Minnesota on the forecast last week
• November forecast November 2024 forecast<00:05:16.680> numbers<00:05:17.680> those<00:05
• forecast to the November forecast for fiscal years 28 and 29.
• see these changes in those um forecast see these changes in those um forecast programs<00:12:18.079

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• We forecast real GDP growth for 2025 at 1.6%. We forecast this to soften slightly.
• our darker lines, that is our forecast our darker lines, that is our forecast for<00:32:05.519><
• incorporate them into our forecast. incorporate them into our forecast.
• wondered if that was in your forecast. wondered if that was in your forecast.
• We adopted the exact same forecast. We adopted the exact same forecast. >> Okay.

Keywords: 910, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast.
• The probabilistic forecast around that.
• So I think the forecast is somewhat encouraged.
• In other words, to the extent that we are forecasting and able to now better forecast what is available
• In other words, to the extent that we are forecasting and able to now better forecast what is available

Keywords: 988, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• <00:16:09.000> forecasting top economic forecasting top economic forecasting organizations
• Our forecast, we done this forecast in the beginning of December, and we actually forecast, as you can
• <00:32:05.360> in<00:32:05.600> the forecast we done this forecast in the forecast
• do a forecast do a forecast of<00:45:59.079> Hawaii's<00:45:59.599> economy<00:46:
• The blue line was our forecast pre-Trump administration, it was really the pre-election forecast, and

Keywords: 910, house, all

Summary: The Committee on Finance held its first informational briefing for 2025, beginning with member introductions and then hearing an economic outlook presentation from Dr. Eugene Tian of the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Dr. Tian said Hawaii’s economy was in relatively good shape in several areas, especially construction, which he described as at a historical high, with construction employment above 40,000 monthly and building permit values and contracting tax base both up sharply. He also noted real estate sales had rebounded in 2024, the labor market had stabilized with unemployment around 2.9%, and initial unemployment claims were below 2019 levels. At the same time, he highlighted challenges including inflation running above the national rate, a shrinking labor force, lower employment compared with 2023, and continued weakness in visitor spending and arrivals. He said future growth would likely come from health care, professional services, construction, tourism recovery, and diversified sectors such as renewable energy, aquaculture, creative industries, and technology. Dr. Tian also discussed Hawaii’s economic structure and recovery, saying the state remains more concentrated in a few industries than the U.S. overall, with government and hospitality making up larger shares of the economy. He said non-tourism sectors had recovered, but tourism-related jobs and output were still below pre-pandemic levels, with Maui and the visitor industry still affected by the wildfire and COVID-19 impacts. He projected tourism and non-agricultural wage and salary jobs would not fully recover until 2027, and said population trends remain a concern because of aging, the likelihood of deaths outpacing births in coming years, and reliance on in-migration. After his presentation, the chair said questions would be taken later and the committee took a short break. After the break, Dr. Carano of the Hawaii Executive Director’s office presented a second outlook, saying Hawaii’s economy in 2025 looked better than 2024 overall, though he emphasized substantial uncertainty tied to the incoming federal administration. He said possible changes to tariffs, tax policy, immigration, and federal spending could raise inflation and keep interest rates higher than previously expected, which would affect housing, consumer debt, the dollar, and Hawaii’s visitor industry. He noted that U.S. visitors account for roughly three-quarters of visitor spending in the state, making federal policy especially important. He also said deregulation could be a long-term positive but would not likely have much effect in 2025 or 2026. As an additional risk, he pointed to bird flu and its effect on livestock, poultry, and egg prices. No votes or formal actions were taken during the briefing.

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast grab. forecast grab.
• forecast is.
• take or we take the previous forecast take or we take the previous forecast and<01:02:58.880>
• what the end of session forecast is. what the end of session forecast is.
• . forecast. forecast.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• This is a baseline forecast, a very far-looking outlook forecast.
• Additionally, this is a forecast, and forecasts do change.
• A quick premium production update in this long-term forecast.
• So mostly we incorporated what professional forecasters did or incorporated in their forecast.
• That inflation is, in general, the forecast produced by professional forecasters that we are incorporating

Transcript Highlights:

• say November, my first forecast, is when we began to highlight in the forecast that we foresaw that
• <00:26:44.559> and the November and February forecast and the November and February forecast
• <00:26:52.440> that in the forecast that we foresaw that in the forecast that we foresaw that
• and again in the the February forecast and again in the November November November forecast<00:27:03.080
• <00:27:21.159> in and delivered my first forecast in and delivered my first forecast in November

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• It's not in the forecast, but the estimated balance of the premium security plan account at the end of
• <00:03:53.519> but it's not in the forecast but it's not in the forecast but the<00:03:55.120
• But why don't we forecast beyond 2025? Because the costs don't magically go away.
• be thinking about the effect that we're going to have on reinsurance beyond the forecasted years.
• <00:13:01.279> the<00:13:01.440> state forecast the state forecast the state provides provides

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Summary: The committee reviewed a side-by-side comparison and fiscal analysis of Senate File 3472, a reinsurance-related bill affecting the premium security plan account, MinnesotaCare, and related health care funding. Staff explained the Senate and House versions of the bill, including how the Senate proposal extends reinsurance for five years and uses a projected $1.087 billion general fund transfer to fully fund claims and administrative costs through fiscal year 2028, while the House version conditions continuation of the program on federal approval of the state innovation waiver. The fiscal presentation also covered appropriations for MNsure, a mental health parity and substance abuse office, and House provisions for delivery reform and a public option study, along with a House transfer of $110.674 million to the health care access fund. Members debated the budget horizon and whether costs should be forecast beyond fiscal year 2025. Representative Schultz argued that the spreadsheet understated the broader fiscal impact of reinsurance and warned about future funding cliffs for MinnesotaCare and other health programs, while other members and staff noted that the state’s standard forecast ends in fiscal year 2025 and that the fiscal note only estimated reinsurance costs through the five-year extension. Supporters said reinsurance was the best available option to reduce premium increases, especially in rural areas, and some pointed to a public option as a longer-term alternative. Opponents argued reinsurance does not address underlying health care costs or deductibles and urged consideration of other reforms. House Research then walked through the policy differences. House-only provisions would change Minnesota Comprehensive Health Association board membership, require platinum plans in certain markets, expand postnatal coverage, require a prescription drug benefit in some plans, set a minimum actuarial value for MinnesotaCare, create an Office of Mental Health Parity and Substance Abuse Accountability, and direct reports on delivery reform and a public option. The shared provisions would extend the premium security program to 2027 and delay the transfer of remaining premium security plan funds to the health care access fund until 2029, with the House language again contingent on federal waiver approval. No formal vote was taken in the excerpt; the chair closed discussion after hearing no further questions and indicated members would be contacted about next steps.

Transcript Highlights:

• I've heard a lot of very worried statements about the impending budget forecast.
• I think we're going to have an awesome forecast. I love your sense of optimism.
• I'm extremely optimistic I forecast I'm extremely optimistic I think<00:02:11.840> we're<00:02
• um so um you know I love your forecast um so um you know I love your sense<00:02:17.440> of<00
• um so represent the budget forecast um so represent fryberg<00:07:33.400> renews<00:07:33.759

Keywords: 919, house, all

Summary: The committee took up House File 1478, a bill to continue and expand a grant program for locating Minnesota’s public land survey system (PLSS) monuments and survey corners. The author explained that many of the state’s 325,000 PLSS monuments have unknown locations, which contributes to boundary uncertainty, lawsuits, and inaccurate land records and taxation. The bill, as described, would add criteria for counties, allow tribes to access the program, and continue funding it. The committee also noted Senate authors and bipartisan support for the measure. An A1 amendment was offered by Representative Fryberg to put the bill in the desired form, and it was adopted without objection. Testifiers from the Minnesota Society of Professional Surveyors and county surveying offices supported the bill, saying better monument location improves maps, property transfers, land management, and tax accuracy, while reducing disputes and lowering survey costs for landowners and public projects. One testifier said the work is important but often underappreciated; another emphasized that more monuments can make surveys much cheaper and more accurate. Committee members expressed support for the bill’s goals, with several indicating they would sign on. The chair repeatedly referenced uncertainty around the budget forecast and said the committee would have to consider practical fiscal realities. In the end, Representative Fryberg renewed his motion, and House File 1478, as amended, was laid over for possible inclusion.

Transcript Highlights:

• This week on Senate Spotlight, the state's latest financial budget forecast is out, and our financial
• Minnesota Management and Budget's latest financial forecast for the state is out.
• Now, MMB just released that updated budget forecast. What were your main takeaways? Sure.
• legislation after a budget forecast legislation after a budget forecast showed<00:13:33.880>
• Now that we've got the February forecast, we're looking at all of that.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• Chair, is: do we know what bill those forecast adjustments will potentially be carried in?
• > adjustments of meaningful forecast adjustments of meaningful forecast adjustments because<00
• <00:57:41.120> article<00:57:41.960> um portion of the forecast article um portion
• enough attention to these forecast enough attention to these forecast adjustments<00:58:51.560><
• floor that makes these forecast floor that makes these forecast adjustments,<00:59:30.280> which

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• And while the forecast come in pairs.
• Something else budget forecast.
• c><00:15:28.639> more<00:15:28.880> precise forecast usually allows for more precise forecast
• Um, but it just depends on what that February forecast really looks like.
• Um, but it just depends on what that February forecast really looks like.

Keywords: 918, senate, all

Summary: The program previewed the Minnesota Senate’s new session and featured interviews with Majority Leader Erin Murphy and Minority Leader Mark Johnson. Murphy said the DFL will focus on Capitol security, gun violence prevention, a supplemental budget, bonding/infrastructure, and continued anti-fraud work. She tied the session’s priorities to recent political violence and federal actions in Minnesota, and said she is working on legislation requiring federal agents to follow Minnesota’s rendering-aid law. She also said the Senate will pursue a bonding bill, likely a small supplemental budget bill, and additional fraud-related measures, including an independent inspector general proposal that stalled in the House. Murphy said the state’s November forecast showed a modest surplus but warned that federal policy changes could worsen the out-year budget outlook. She said the Senate would remain committed to balancing the budget and would not use infrastructure as leverage in negotiations. On fraud, she said the caucus has already passed multiple bills since 2023 and wants stronger enforcement, while expressing concern about prosecutorial capacity. She also emphasized a desire for bipartisan cooperation despite an election year and recent tragedy, saying senators should keep debates focused on policy and maintain working relationships. Johnson said Senate Republicans will emphasize fraud, affordability, infrastructure, and a broader approach to safety that includes mental health, school safety, and law enforcement training and equipment. He said the Senate has limited jurisdiction over the increased federal presence in Minnesota but can work on areas where bipartisan agreement is possible. He also said the session will be a bonding year, with attention to roads, bridges, water systems, and other capital projects, and noted that the governor’s proposed $97 million bonding bill is far below the roughly $6.5 billion in requests. On the budget, he said the legislature may have limited room to address the projected deficit this session, and he warned that retirements are changing the Senate’s makeup while also creating opportunities for new members and ideas.

Transcript Highlights:

• And so that first row, just current forecast again, it's just baseline.
• that first row just current forecast that first row just current forecast again<00:16:08.000>
• And so what that translates into with the forecast is a 23% increase over baseline.
• There you're at a 15% increase in benefits. forecast is a 23% increase over forecast is a 23% increase
• The only caveat there is that Elm's forecast right now goes the official forecast current year plus one

Keywords: 1189, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• However, we have some new forecast.
• One of the challenging things is if you look at the forecast in February, the forecast only projected
• um forecast in February, the forecast um forecast in February, the forecast only<00:07:20.319>
• <00:07:37.680> came 8,793 and by the time the forecast came 8,793 and by the time the forecast
• In 2023 the trifecta expanded forecast.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• And, you know, the one-time shift has been made also, and that was reported in the February forecast
• Based on the February forecast, the Outdoor Heritage Fund will have $161.9 million available.
• That's $3 million less than the November forecast.
• Based on the February forecast, the outdoor Heritage Fund without a 161.9, 9, 1 million available.
• Then that's 3 million must spending November forecast.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• is forecasted to be below 32 degrees.
• So that we're asking the utility companies to also go off of the forecast? Yes. Okay.
• Now forecast is... Thank you. Forecast? Yes. Okay. That forecast is 72 hours out? Is that right?
• It's the forecast that's promulgated by the National Weather Service?
• And it ends up, you know, is forecasted to be in the 40s, but then they do a shutoff and it's... ...forecasted

Keywords: 993, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Standing Committee on Energy and Telecommunications, chaired by Senator Cameron Parker, considered a large agenda focused on utility consumer protections, rate transparency, NYSERDA oversight, and energy transition policy. Several bills were discussed in detail, including measures to prohibit residential utility shutoffs during extreme temperature forecasts (Bill 120A), delay shutoffs and late fees while a utility is under certain PSC investigations (Bill 904B), require disclosure of planned rate increases (Bill 4989A), limit certain utility charges after 12 months (Bill 8710), and require utilities to disclose more information with major rate change applications (Bill 9433A). The committee also considered bills on net energy metering credits (Bill 1553), reconnection for low-income customers (Bill 965), sanctions and civil penalties (Bill 8908), and annual NYSERDA reporting obligations (Bill 1819). Members raised recurring concerns about affordability, arrears, and who ultimately bears costs when utilities are prevented from collecting immediately. Senator Walczyk repeatedly questioned whether protections would shift costs to other ratepayers, while sponsors and the chair emphasized that the bills did not erase arrears but created temporary consumer protections. Senator May noted that some proposals could produce significant savings for ratepayers. On Bill 1819, Senator Walczyk supported greater accountability for NYSERDA’s use of ratepayer-funded money. Bill 1668, which would authorize NYSERDA to administer grants for switching residents to electric heat pumps, drew questions about funding; staff said it would be funded off-budget from existing sources and would have no direct state cost, though it could require shifting existing program resources. The committee advanced most bills to third reading after motions and votes, with several measures receiving no votes but still moving forward. Bill 2477 was held for possible amendments. Bill 4989A was referred to the Consumer Protection Committee. Bill 5111, the Just Energy Transition Act, prompted extended discussion about its study timeline and a PSC order to facilitate replacement and redevelopment of at least 4 gigawatts of fossil fuel generation; the bill was advanced to third reading after debate. The meeting concluded with adjournment after the committee completed its agenda.

Transcript Highlights:

• Slide 9 shows the executive's ongoing revenue forecast.
• Slide 10 shows the executive's ongoing expenditure forecast.
• OSPBB's revenue forecast.
• below the base revenue forecast?
• Every single forecast that's ever been given is wrong.

Keywords: 1182, all

Summary: The committee met to review the governor’s fiscal 2027 budget presentation, with the chair repeatedly asking members to keep questions brief and avoid speeches. The discussion focused first on the overall revenue and spending outlook, including concerns from members that the executive forecast was more optimistic than the JLBC baseline and that the budget appeared to front-load revenue and expenditure growth. The governor’s budget team said the forecast was close to JLBC’s, that the budget was structurally balanced, and that differences were roughly $100 million per year on ongoing revenue. Members asked for follow-up calculations in writing, including the total multi-year gap and the amount of revenue enhancements above base revenues. A major portion of the meeting centered on tax and fee proposals tied to data centers, water use, and sports betting. The governor’s team defended eliminating the existing data center tax incentive as the removal of a loophole rather than a new tax, arguing the incentive had already succeeded in attracting major investment. They also described a proposed Department of Water Resources fee-setting authority for data centers to support a new Colorado River Protection Fund, and said the proposal would apply to existing and future facilities without a grandfather clause. Members raised concerns about fairness, competitiveness, and whether the changes would require a supermajority vote. The team also discussed increased sports betting fees, saying the revenue forecast did not include dynamic behavioral effects. The committee then moved through major spending areas, including corrections, public safety, border security, cybersecurity, K-12 education, Medicaid, and developmental disabilities. The governor’s budget includes ongoing funding to prevent correctional officer pay cuts, money to comply with prison health care court orders, probation funding, body-worn cameras, law enforcement staffing, fentanyl task forces, and cyber readiness grants. Members questioned the lack of funding for a prison oversight committee and asked for corrections spending totals over the administration. On border security, the executive said it was seeking about $759.7 million in federal reimbursement for border-related costs and that the governor had met with federal officials, including Secretary Noem and Tom Homan, about the request. In education, the budget proposes renewing Prop. 123, adding K-12 base funding, and issuing $1.5 billion in school facilities bonds over three years; members debated whether the proposal was appropriate and whether Prop. 123 revenues could support the debt service. The meeting also covered AHCCCS cost growth and federal HR1 impacts, with the executive warning of major coverage losses and hospital funding reductions, and DDD funding, where the governor’s team said the budget fully funds services and includes about $120 million in supplemental needs. No votes were taken; the meeting was a presentation and question-and-answer session only.

Transcript Highlights:

• We do have a budget proposal for forecasting dollars.
• Forecasted and put to use. Yeah. So, a couple of things.
• And so we've relied on our federal partners for flood forecasting, assistance with all of the forecasting
• And those are key to water supply forecasting, as you heard about measuring runoff and forecasting our
• We're here on item six, the snow survey and forecasting item.

Keywords: 987, senate, all

Summary: The subcommittee heard an extensive discussion on the Governor’s proposal to eliminate vacant positions across several environmental and natural resources departments, including Fish and Wildlife, Parks, the Coastal Commission/BCDC, DPR, DTSC, CalRecycle, and the State Water Resources Control Board. The Legislative Analyst’s Office explained that the JLBC had already not concurred with 650 of roughly 1,000 positions under review, citing concerns that many of the vacancies support core functions such as law enforcement, permitting, public safety, sea-level rise planning, and implementation of recently enacted laws. The Department of Finance defended the vacancy reduction exercise as a way to capture savings from a statewide pool of about 40,000 vacancies, arguing that departments need flexibility to manage operations and that some vacancies are used to cover operating costs or hard-to-fill roles. Several department representatives testified that the cuts would reduce capacity and could slow permitting or enforcement, though they said they would try to reclassify positions and prioritize the highest-need work. No vote was taken and all items were held open for a future hearing. Members focused heavily on the practical effects of the cuts. Senators questioned whether vacant positions should be treated as a budget savings tool, whether special-fund positions should be eliminated when they do not affect the General Fund, and whether long-vacant positions should simply be removed if they have not been filled for years. Fish and Wildlife and Parks described impacts to permitting, wildlife conflict response, and law enforcement; Parks said its academy can train only about 50 rangers a year, leaving many vacancies even after the proposed reductions. The Coastal Commission said the affected positions support SB 272 sea-level rise planning with local governments. DPR said the proposed cuts would affect multiple branches involved in pesticide registration, enforcement, and safety review, while DTSC said it was still hiring from a large 2022 reform package and had reduced its vacancy rate from about 30 percent to 15 percent before the drill. The State Water Board said its proposed reductions would be spread across programs and could lead to slower permitting and backlogs, though it would protect drinking water functions as much as possible. The committee then moved to a State Water Resources Control Board overview and a new budget proposal tied to the U.S. Supreme Court’s Sackett decision. Chair Esquivel described the board’s responsibilities for water quality, water rights, drinking water, and financial assistance, and said the board is updating the Bay-Delta Plan while also pursuing voluntary agreements and broader water-rights administration. He said federal workforce reductions and the Sackett ruling have increased pressure on state programs. The board requested $2.6 million and 12 permanent positions from the Waste Discharge Permit Fund to address permitting and enforcement gaps created by the narrowing of federal Clean Water Act jurisdiction. The LAO said the request met its high bar for new proposals because it was supported by the board’s data and would help maintain water-quality protections, though it noted that state processes are less efficient than the federal framework they are now partially replacing.

Transcript Highlights:

• Are you familiar with the, um, between the November forecast and the February forecast, the reserve funds
• Are you familiar with the, um, between the November forecast and the February forecast, the reserve funds
• Are you familiar with the, um, between the November forecast and the February forecast, the reserve funds
• February forecast the reserve funds that February forecast the reserve funds that we<00:05:02.240>
• November and uh the February forecast November and uh the February forecast when<00:05:31.880>

Bills: HF4, HF173

Keywords: tax relief fund, budget surplus, surplus revenue, tax rebate, tax refund, one-time refund, income tax, property tax, constitutional amendment, Minnesota Constitution, general fund, budget reserve, taxpayer relief, state surplus, fiscal forecast, wealthy taxpayers, high-income exclusion, 2026 ballot, referendum, surplus distribution