Transcript Highlights:

• methods forecast.
• So our forecasting methods forecast.
• forecasting uh consensus forecasting<00:13:57.839> group.
• What's our forecast look like?
• What's our forecast look like?

Keywords: Meeting Start 00:00:00 Attendance Roll Call 00:00:36 Department for Medicaid Services 00:01:44, 958, all

Summary: The House Budget Review Subcommittee on Health and Family Services met for an overview of the Department for Medicaid Services budget. Commissioner Lisa Lee and CFO Steve Beal described Kentucky Medicaid enrollment at about 1.4 million members, including more than 600,000 children, and said the agency’s 2025 total budget was $20.6 billion. They reviewed enrollment trends before, during, and after the COVID-19 public health emergency, noting that redeterminations begun in 2023 reduced enrollment from its peak but that total membership remains above pre-COVID levels. They also explained the difference between the fee-for-service population, which includes long-term care and waiver members, and managed care members, and gave examples of the kinds of services and diagnoses seen in each group. A major focus was the governor’s recommended Medicaid budget and the department’s forecast process. Lee said the budget is split into benefits and administration, with benefits covering fee-for-service services, managed care capitation, transportation, and Medicare premiums, while administration covers contracts, personnel, operating costs, and IT-related advanced planning documents. She said the department uses a consensus forecasting group and actuary input, and that its forecasts have been within 1% of actual spending in recent years. The department also said the governor’s budget includes new waiver slots to address waiting lists, a 2% staff COLA, and a 10% phase-down on state-directed payments beginning in January 2028. Much of the discussion centered on House Resolution 1 and the funding needed to implement its Medicaid-related provisions, including community engagement requirements, six-month redeterminations, and future cost sharing. Lee said the department requested about $35 million in total funds for fiscal 2027, including about $8.2 million in general funds for system changes to the integrated eligibility system, claims processing, notices, and monitoring; and about $11 million in fiscal 2028 for ongoing maintenance, with about $1.6 million in general funds. She said the department expects to seek federal APD matching funds for the IT work. In response to questions, she explained that community engagement would apply to Medicaid expansion members, with qualifying activities including work, school, volunteering, or equivalent income, and that certain groups such as pregnant women, children, caretaker relatives, and some people with chronic disease or substance use disorder would be excluded. She said the department identified roughly 70,000 expansion members who could be subject to the requirement. No votes or formal actions were taken.

Transcript Highlights:

• So we were running well ahead of the forecast.
• So this was the data available to the conference going into the forecast.
• So that we accounted for in the forecast.
• In the forecast years.
• As you'll see, while the numbers have changed, and when you count two-year forecast or five-year forecast

Summary: The Senate Committee on Finance and Tax met and first considered CS for SB 1290, the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles agency package. The bill would align Florida law with IFTA and federal motor carrier rules, raise the crash-reporting damage threshold from $500 to $2,000, define “economically disadvantaged area,” update registration and email-notice procedures, and revise the definition of tank vehicles. An amendment was adopted to allow nonprofits to perform VIN inspections under an MOU and to create a DV-embossed specialty plate option for eligible disabled veterans. The bill, as amended, was reported favorably. The committee then passed SB 1292, which exempts certain email addresses collected by DHSMV for notification purposes from public records disclosure. The committee also considered two flood-resiliency measures by Senator DeSantis/DeSigley. SJR 174 would amend the Florida Constitution to allow the Legislature to exclude from assessed value improvements made to mitigate flood damage, with the proposed amendment to appear on the 2026 ballot. SB 176 provided the implementing details, including eligibility tied to flood-risk areas or prior flood damage, square-footage limits for rebuilt or elevated homesteads, and documentation requirements for property appraisers. Members asked about how rebuilding and square-footage caps would work, and the sponsor explained the intent was to encourage elevation and resiliency without allowing major expansion. A technical amendment was adopted to SB 176, and both measures were reported favorably. After the bills, staff director Azar Khan gave a brief presentation on the latest General Revenue conference results, noting collections were running ahead of forecast and explaining the main forecast adjustments, including increases in sales tax and investment earnings and a reduction in corporate income tax projections. No questions were raised on the presentation. The committee then noted that additional bills were still moving through earlier committees, invited members to follow up with staff, and adjourned without any recorded votes beyond the committee actions on the bills and amendments.

Transcript Highlights:

• I'm not asking you to speculate on what that forecast will be, but is there any validity to those rumors
• So I won't, of course, speculate on the forecast because I don't know what it will be, but I do know
• <00:04:07.280> because course speculate on the forecast because course speculate on the forecast
• so we will see next week uh but forecast so we will see next week uh but what<00:04:36.759> is
• but we we won't show up in the forecast but we we we<00:04:48.680> know<00:04:49.039> that

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• So the forecasted amount in this is really nominal; it's not very predictable or easy to forecast either
• <00:19:30.240> either predictable or easy to forecast either predictable or easy to forecast
• implications for the forecast.
• implications for the forecast.
• implications for the forecast.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• And so we've built everything in our population forecast around that assumption.
• Expecting to have kind of a construction weakness that's built into our forecast.
• So we've built that into our forecast.
• going to move above its normal average anywhere in the forecast horizon.
• So pretty much the forecast that you had during session is the same forecast that you're going to be

Summary: The committee met to receive Amy Baker’s presentation on Florida’s long-range financial outlook for fiscal years 2026-27 through 2028-29. Baker said the forecast assumes continued but moderating economic growth, with Florida GDP slowing from recent highs, personal income remaining above average, wages continuing to rise faster than job growth, and population growth eventually slowing as the state approaches 2030 and the baby-boomer cohort fully ages into retirement. She also highlighted weakening housing and real-estate-related revenue, especially documentary stamp collections, along with low consumer sentiment as signs of caution in the outlook. Baker explained that the state’s near-term general revenue picture improved largely because of legislative actions taken in the prior session, including contingency releases, reversions, and other budget adjustments, rather than from major new revenue growth. She said reserves remain strong at nearly $15 billion, or just under 30% of general revenue, with the budget stabilization fund at its constitutional maximum. The main spending pressures identified were critical needs and other high-priority needs, led by a new recurring transfer to the emergency preparedness and response fund and by Medicaid, where rising service costs and medical inflation—especially behavioral analysis costs in managed care—are driving higher expenditures despite lower caseloads and a slightly better federal match. Members questioned the accuracy of the forecast, the Medicaid cost drivers, the treatment of the governor’s emergency fund, federal funding assumptions, and whether recent federal legislation was reflected in the numbers. Baker said the outlook assumes current federal funding paths continue, that the new federal tax/revenue law had not yet been fully incorporated because agencies were still reviewing it, and that the emergency fund line was calculated from recent appropriations without distinguishing specific uses. She also said the vetoed $750 million did not affect the budget stabilization fund because it reverted to unallocated general revenue. No bills were heard, no votes were taken, and the committee adjourned after the presentation and discussion.

Transcript Highlights:

• Wait to give the probability of that new load coming here to its longer range forecasts.
• Vegas was giving us the load forecast, I asked if he believed that we could meet the projected load forecast
• This should help ERCOT's load forecast.
• Then Sections 2 and 4 deal with load standards. forecast, load shed, and reliability.
• load growth and, in fact, would distort the forecast to the detriment of grid operations.

Bills: SB6, SB11, SB33

Keywords: electric power, interconnection, utilities, ERCOT, large load customers, water supply, sewer service, demand management, school prayer, Bible reading, religious text, public schools, Texas Education Code, student prayer, silent prayer, meditation, religious liberty, First Amendment, Establishment Clause, church and state

Transcript Highlights:

• THE TWO BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGES WERE SALES TAX AND EARNINGS ON INVESTMENT.
• THE SECOND THING THAT MAKES OUR RECURRING FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT SMALLER THAN THE IMMEDIATE INCREASE
• SO THAT WE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON WHY THERE'S LESS MONEY ADDED IN THE
• FORECAST YEARS.
• AS YOU'LL SEE WHILE THE NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED AND WHEN YOU COUNT TWO-YEAR FORECASTS OR FIVE-YEAR FORECASTS

Keywords: 999, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• in the forecast this bill relative to in the forecast this bill relative to the<00:05:57.479> committee
• legal definition versus the the forecast legal definition versus the the forecast definition<00:
• and put that into the forecast and obviously price legislation against that forecast.
• and put that into the forecast and obviously price legislation against that forecast with revenues like
• fund forecast that then won't materialize in the future when a settlement, where forecasting doesn't

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• will provide a presentation on special education forecast projections.
• November forecast. So, whenever you're ready, you may begin.
• between each of the bium in the forecast between each of the bium in the forecast so<00:47:27.400
• each of the fiscal years within the forecast period.
• each of the fiscal years within the forecast period.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Education Finance Committee met on January 21 with a quorum present for the first meeting of the 2025 biennium. The co-chairs described the temporary power-sharing arrangement in the tied Senate, introduced committee staff and pages, and had members briefly introduce themselves and share what subject they would teach. After the introductions, the committee moved to a presentation from State Demographer Susan Brower. Brower reviewed Minnesota’s school-age population trends and projections, noting that the state had just under 1 million children ages 5 to 17 in 2023 and that, for the first time, the older adult population exceeded the school-age population. She said the school-age population is concentrated in the Twin Cities metro and other regional centers, and projected an overall decline of about 5% over the next 15 to 20 years, driven mainly by declining birth rates and long-running net outmigration of young adults. She also explained that growth is expected in some areas, especially along the I-94 corridor north of the metro, while northern regions are projected to see the largest declines. She clarified for members that her figures measure resident children, not school enrollment, and that boundary changes are not reflected in the district-level data. The presentation also covered demographic change among students. Brower said about 35% of Minnesota children ages 5 to 17 are children of color, with growing multiracial populations and increasing linguistic diversity. She reported that about 20% of school-age children have at least one foreign-born parent, and about 18% of enrolled students speak a language other than English at home, with Spanish, Somali, and Hmong the largest home languages. She also discussed child poverty, saying Minnesota’s rate is just under 10%, below the national rate of about 15%, and that poverty is concentrated in Minneapolis-St. Paul, some first-ring suburbs, and parts of northern Minnesota, including districts with larger Native populations. Members asked questions about whether the projections accounted for migration and whether open enrollment affected the figures; Brower said the data reflect where children live, not where they attend school, and that the projections are based on recent migration and birth patterns, with future changes more likely to come from international immigration than from domestic migration.

Transcript Highlights:

• We just did our forecast. People think, "Oh yeah, you guys do forecast."
• forecast. We just did our forecast. forecast. We just did our forecast.
• And that makes you like forecast."
• Basically, we finished a forecast, so we released a forecast in May.
• so we released a forecast in May. so we released a forecast in May.

Keywords: 910, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• <00:41:47.839> that 3.3% um and the November forecast that 3.3% um and the November forecast
• publish it in our debt capacity forecast publish it in our debt capacity forecast is<00:50:50.920
• personal income at all the forecasted personal income at all the forecasted capital<01:03:52.079
• The forecast is, in a sense, waiting to see what happens in 2025.
• The forecast is, in a sense, waiting to see what happens in 2025.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Summary: The Committee on Capital Investment held its first meeting of the 2025 session with members and staff introducing themselves and describing their priorities. Senators from both parties repeatedly emphasized the goal of passing a strong bipartisan bonding bill this year, with several members noting that local projects were delayed after no bonding bill passed the previous year. Chair Housley also said the committee would not meet later that week and previewed an upcoming presentation from MMB on federal funds. The committee then heard a presentation from MMB’s Leah Corey and Anna Ming on Minnesota’s federal funding efforts. Corey explained that MMB’s federal funds team coordinates state efforts to maximize funding from IIJA, IRA, CHIPS, and related federal programs. She said Minnesota has secured about $12.3 billion in federal funding so far, including roughly $3 billion more since the last presentation, supporting about 1,800 projects statewide. Most of the funding is going to transportation, roads, and bridges, with other major areas including clean energy and weatherization. She also highlighted an interactive public dashboard showing projects by region and noted that much of the data reflects funds flowing through the state enterprise. Corey also discussed state match programs that helped unlock federal dollars, including the IIJA discretionary match fund, the State Competitiveness Fund, and the Forward Fund. She said $180 million in state match has unlocked about $1 billion in federal investment through the IIJA discretionary match fund, nearly $17 million in state investment has unlocked nearly $90 million in federal funding through the State Competitiveness Fund, and $124 million for the Forward Fund has unlocked nearly $1 billion in federal and private investment. Members asked whether more state dollars could have brought in more federal funds; Corey said she was not sure, but noted the IIJA match fund is expected to run out in the coming months. The presentation also focused on direct pay tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, which allow tax-exempt entities such as governments, nonprofits, school districts, and tribal nations to receive payments for eligible clean energy projects after they are completed. Corey said the state is building awareness and technical assistance around direct pay, including educational sessions and a tax expert resource. She also described Minnesota’s Green Bank, the Minnesota Climate Innovation Finance Authority, which is beginning to issue loans for projects such as community energy, nonprofit geothermal systems, and solar-plus-battery installations.

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast beyond that 53 million. forecast beyond that 53 million.
• , $6 to7 million that's in the forecast, $6 to7 million that's in the forecast, but<00:43:28.240>
• > we that we're forecasting on when we that we're forecasting on when we actually<00:48:38.319>
• actually pay claim or we're forecasting actually pay claim or we're forecasting when<00:48:57.599
• And to that point, in the forecast.

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• focusing just on the state forecast focusing just on the state forecast horizon<00:20:43.440>
• incorporated into the November forecast incorporated into the November forecast or<00:21:40.240>
• This is against the forecast.
• recent budget forecast. recent budget forecast. >> Thank<01:08:20.239> you.
• public will get that budget forecast. public will get that budget forecast.

Keywords: 918, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Rules and Administration Select Subcommittee on Federal Impacts on Minnesotans and Economic Stability met on February 20, 2026, to hear from Minnesota Management and Budget State Budget Director Anna Mingi about federal funding changes affecting the state budget. Before testimony began, Senator Rasmusson objected to a draft committee report that had been prepared in advance of the hearing, arguing it was inappropriate to summarize testimony before it occurred. The chair responded that nonpartisan staff had prepared the draft from Mingi’s submitted presentation and could revise it after the hearing if needed. Director Mingi explained that federal dollars make up more than one-third of state spending and support about 650 federal awards totaling over $23 billion this year, with more than $15 billion supporting state entitlement programs. She said the federal funding environment had changed significantly since January 2025 through executive orders, pauses, terminations, new grant conditions, delayed awards, and the July 2025 passage of H.R. 1, the federal reconciliation bill. Her main focus was H.R. 1’s effects on health care and food assistance, including work requirements for some adults, changes to eligibility for legal non-citizens, limits on retroactive Medicaid coverage and directed payments, new limits on provider taxes, and SNAP changes that shift some benefit and administrative costs to the state and counties. She estimated H.R. 1 would reduce federal funds to state-administered programs by about $327 million in the current biennium and $1.6 billion in the next, with additional costs to hospitals, counties, and other partners beyond the budget horizon. Members asked follow-up questions about whether the estimates were relative to the forecast and whether federal Medicaid funding would still rise over time. Mingi said the estimates were based on the November forecast baseline and that Medicaid federal dollars would likely continue growing overall, though the law still creates significant losses relative to prior projections. Senator Rasmusson emphasized that point in remarks to the committee. The discussion then shifted to federal grant pauses and cancellations: MMB’s tracker showed about six awards on hold totaling roughly $491 million, 13 confirmed cancellations across areas including clean energy, education, food assistance, and public health, and additional threatened or litigated cuts not included in those totals. Mingi identified two canceled violence-prevention-related grants, including a FEMA public safety grant and a justice reinvestment grant, and noted that CDC had recently moved to cancel or seek cancellation of several Minnesota public health grants, including a $65 million public health infrastructure award.

Transcript Highlights:

• Today's forecast gives us a chance to, as you've heard, pass a bipartisan tax conformity bill that would
• The forecast cited government?
• what is driving higher revenue forecast. what is driving higher revenue forecast.
• <00:14:30.240> So above what was previously forecast.
• So above what was previously forecast.

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• amount that was forecasted.
• That's not a utilities forecast or the Public Advocates forecast, but the forecast is adopted by the
• Advocates forecast, but the forecast is adopted by the CPC.
• What happens is that if you forecast too much sales, you have lower rates. If you under-forecast...
• what a reasonable forecast is.

Summary: The committee heard several energy and water affordability bills, with extensive testimony on SB 254 by Senator Becker, SB 541 by Senator Becker, SB 453 by Senator Stern, SB 292 by Senator Caballero, and SB 473 by Senator Padilla. SB 254 was presented as a broad utility affordability package addressing short-term climate credits, a Power Fund, tighter scrutiny of rate increases and utility profits, wildfire spending, securitization of future utility costs, and streamlining. Supporters, including TURN and several environmental and public power groups, said it could lower bills and reduce long-term costs; opponents from investor-owned utilities, labor, business, and local government raised concerns about market impacts, insufficient analysis, and the breadth of the bill. The committee approved SB 254 on a 6-3 vote and placed it on call. SB 541 focused on load flexibility and using existing grid capacity more efficiently. Senator Becker described it as a transparency and planning measure to identify cost-effective load shifting and reduce peak demand, while supporters said it could improve resiliency and save money. Several CCAs and utilities opposed the bill in print or unless amended, arguing that some language implied a mandate and that the concept needed more cost-effectiveness analysis; the author said amendments would remove language dividing the state goal among retail suppliers and clarify that the bill is not a procurement mandate. The committee passed SB 541 as amended to Appropriations on a 9-1 vote and left it on call. SB 453 by Senator Stern would return unspent ratepayer-funded microgrid program dollars and was described as a way to keep the lights on and redirect unused funds. It drew support from local government and environmental groups, with PG&E expressing concern about how the bill would affect its ability to spend awarded funds. The committee passed SB 453 as amended to Appropriations on a 12-0 vote. SB 292 by Senator Caballero would require more granular outage and reliability reporting, including census-tract-level data, to better inform resilience planning after PSPS events; utilities opposed unless amended, citing duplicative reporting and regulatory overlap, but the bill passed 12-0 to Appropriations. SB 473 by Senator Padilla would require or expand water utility decoupling to promote conservation and affordability. Supporters, including water utilities, labor, business, and local government groups, argued decoupling stabilizes revenue, supports conservation, and can keep rates lower for low-use customers. The Public Advocates Office opposed, saying prior pilot data showed no conservation benefit and about $1 billion in added costs, and that the CPUC had already rejected similar requests. Committee members questioned the conservation and capital-investment effects of the different rate structures; the author and supporters argued decoupling helps utilities fund infrastructure while allowing lower fixed charges for low-use customers. The transcript ends during that discussion, before a final vote on SB 473 is shown.

Transcript Highlights:

• or the February November forecast or the February forecast<01:07:37.240> but<01:07:37.440>
• but this amendment only has forecast but this amendment only has November<01:07:39.200> forecast
• why you selected the November forecast why you selected the November forecast as<01:07:49.880>
• of a November forecast, noting that the November forecast is not created by the Constitution but by
• <01:15:45.400> of forecast um the November forecast of forecast um the November forecast of

Bills: HF25, HF4

Keywords: pregnancy support, women's health, maternity homes, nonprofit organizations, grant funding, abortion, family services, tax relief fund, budget surplus, surplus revenue, tax rebate, tax refund, one-time refund, income tax, property tax, constitutional amendment, Minnesota Constitution, general fund, budget reserve, taxpayer relief

Transcript Highlights:

• and the most recent forecast.
• <00:52:25.880> are the forecasts are the forecasts are optimistic<00:52:27.680> or<
• And so that's why we have this forecast budget deficit now.
• > out when the February forecast comes out when the February forecast comes out there<01:27:14.320
• or the February the November forecast or the February forecast<01:47:05.760> would<01:47:05.960

Keywords: 1183, house

Summary: The Ways and Means Committee began with member and staff introductions, including several new members and committee staff. Representative Zach Stevenson, the DFL lead, objected to the day’s presentation, saying he was disappointed the committee was starting with a group he viewed as aligned with Republicans rather than a nonpartisan budget presentation. The chair responded that the committee had a bipartisan agreement and that hearing a different perspective was appropriate. The committee then proceeded to a presentation from economists with the Center of the American Experiment, with questions held until the end. The presentation focused on Minnesota’s budget outlook, arguing that the state faces a structural imbalance and a projected $5.14 billion deficit in the 2028-29 biennium. The presenters said spending has outpaced revenues, highlighted a large increase in general fund spending since 2023, and argued that inflation-adjusted per-capita spending remains above pre-2024 levels through the forecast period. They said the biggest growth areas are E-12 education and especially Health and Human Services, with HHS projected to become the largest budget category and much of its growth tied to Medicaid and long-term care waivers. The presenters also argued Minnesota spends more than most states on welfare and Medicaid, citing comparisons showing the state near the top nationally in spending per person in poverty and in several Medicaid categories. They said some of the HHS growth reflects policy changes from the 2023 session, while other pressures come from enrollment growth, health care prices, federal debt, and an aging population. No votes or formal committee actions were taken during the portion of the meeting shown.

Transcript Highlights:

• Then the next three columns show the November forecast November 2024 forecast numbers.
• <00:03:12.920> Minnesota on the forecast last week by Minnesota on the forecast last week
• November forecast November 2024 forecast<00:05:16.680> numbers<00:05:17.680> those<00:05
• forecast to the November forecast for fiscal years 28 and 29.
• see these changes in those um forecast see these changes in those um forecast programs<00:12:18.079

Keywords: 1183, house

Transcript Highlights:

• We forecast real GDP growth for 2025 at 1.6%. We forecast this to soften slightly.
• our darker lines, that is our forecast our darker lines, that is our forecast for<00:32:05.519><
• incorporate them into our forecast. incorporate them into our forecast.
• wondered if that was in your forecast. wondered if that was in your forecast.
• We adopted the exact same forecast. We adopted the exact same forecast. >> Okay.

Keywords: 910, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• forecast.
• The probabilistic forecast around that.
• So I think the forecast is somewhat encouraged.
• In other words, to the extent that we are forecasting and able to now better forecast what is available
• In other words, to the extent that we are forecasting and able to now better forecast what is available

Keywords: 988, house, all