Transcript Highlights:

• We must ensure a livable wage.
• their lives, losing wages to rebuild the most affluent communities in the state.
• that does not match either prevailing wage or the Davis-Bacon wages that the federal government requires
• It would be California's prevailing wage.
• It would be for the L.A. area prevailing wage, that would be my understanding, yes ma'am.

Summary: The joint Senate and Assembly labor committees held a hearing on the Los Angeles wildfires and their impact on workers, employers, and recovery efforts. Chairs and members emphasized that rebuilding should prioritize worker safety, equity, local hiring, and strong labor standards rather than simply moving quickly or relying on the lowest bidder. They also stressed the need to learn from past disasters and to create a more coordinated state response for future emergencies. Worker advocates described how domestic workers, day laborers, firefighters, and other frontline workers were affected by the fires. Testimony focused on workers being trapped in evacuation zones, lacking timely information in Spanish, losing jobs and income, and facing exposure to toxic debris without adequate PPE. Speakers called for expanded outreach and education, stronger Cal/OSHA enforcement, broader occupational safety coverage for domestic workers and day laborers, recall and transfer rights, childcare and transportation support, and a centralized disaster relief system that can quickly deliver cash aid and equipment regardless of immigration status. Firefighter Derek Irwin said California firefighters face serious carcinogenic exposure and urged continued funding for the firefighter cancer prevention and research program, along with a long-term state health monitoring and research effort similar to the World Trade Center Health Program. Building trades and labor representatives argued that cleanup and rebuilding should be done through community workforce agreements, prevailing wage, apprenticeship requirements, and local hire provisions, and said the state already has trained workers available. They also said federal debris-removal work through the Army Corps has limited the state’s ability to impose some standards, but that state and local funding or subsidies should trigger labor requirements. Employer and business representatives described major losses to property, inventory, revenue, and jobs, especially in Altadena and nearby areas. The Altadena Chamber said it is coordinating recovery resources, while a construction business owner said small local firms are being shut out of disaster contracts and proposed a more accessible procurement process for local and minority businesses. LAEDC presented preliminary estimates of billions in property damage and business disruption, tens of thousands of potential job losses, and a recovery timeline of five to ten years, warning that low-income communities will be disproportionately affected and that workforce retraining and upskilling will be needed alongside the broader economic recovery.

Transcript Highlights:

• Premiums under the law in 2026 are 88% of wages for large employers and 66% of wages for small employers
• of the statewide average wage.
• for large employers and 66% of of wages for large employers and 66% of wages<00:07:35.840> for
• they may deduct up to um44% of wages they may deduct up to um44% of wages under<00:08:06.800>
• of 150% or less of the statewide wage of 150% or less of the statewide average<00:08:35.039> wage

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• as surveillance-based wage as surveillance-based wage discrimination. discrimination. discrimination
• , staffing decisions and provide wages, staffing decisions and provide wages, benefits,<00:23:49.440
• That's why wages are stagnating.
• are their wages.
• That's why wages are their wages.

Keywords: 1183, house

Summary: House File 3794, as amended by the A4 amendment, was heard in committee. Representative Greenman described the bill as a ban on surveillance-based pricing and wage discrimination, with a disclosure requirement for companies using automated data to set individualized prices or wages. The A4 amendment was adopted; Greenman said it updated language based on attorney general and stakeholder feedback and added a burden-shifting provision that would let consumers or workers establish a presumption, which companies could then rebut with data. Greenman and supporters argued the bill would stop companies from using personal data and AI tools to charge different prices to different people, while still allowing ordinary market-based discounts and clearly offered group discounts such as those for veterans, students, or teachers. Supportive testimony came from the Minnesota Farmers Union, a neighborhood bookstore owner, Consumer Reports, and a small business owner. They said surveillance pricing undermines fairness, transparency, and competition, and cited examples such as different online prices based on location, browser history, or loyalty-program data. Testifiers also warned that AI-driven pricing and discounting can be opaque and discriminatory, and that small businesses cannot compete with large firms that control more data. Consumer Reports said consumers should not have to use workarounds like VPNs to compare prices and noted that some discounts based on personal data may also need sunlight and guardrails. Opposition came from the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce and the Chamber of Progress. They argued the bill’s definitions are too broad and could sweep in ordinary business analytics, loyalty programs, targeted promotions, inventory tools, and even spreadsheets, creating compliance risk and discouraging innovation and investment. They also warned the bill could burden small businesses and interfere with workplace management and compensation decisions. During member discussion, several legislators voiced support for the bill as a transparency and fairness measure, while one member noted that the most egregious examples appear to be in e-commerce and said the committee was laying the bill over for further consideration.

Transcript Highlights:

• It's basically an IRA for low-wage workers.
• so<00:08:50.240> it's<00:08:50.519> it's<00:08:50.640> a<00:08:50.760> wage
• because<00:10:06.360> now<00:10:06.519> it<00:10:06.640> is<00:10:06.839> wage
• c><00:10:07.279> theft<00:10:08.279> they<00:10:08.399> are because now it is wage
• theft they are because now it is wage theft they are willfully<00:10:09.200> and<00:10:09.800

Keywords: 1187, senate, all

Transcript Highlights:

• As the Speaker said, this project since day 1 has been a prevailing wage project.
• It was never, it will always be a prevailing wage project.
• It was never, it will always be a prevailing wage project.
• And that wage garnishment's off the table, but, no, actually, excuse me, got it backwards: wage garnishment
• So, and because the wage garnishments as is off the table.

Keywords: 909, all

Transcript Highlights:

• on advanced manufacturing and cyber security to build a stronger diversified economy, create high wage
• on advanced manufacturing and cyber security to build a stronger diversified economy, create high wage
• on advanced manufacturing and cyber security to build a stronger diversified economy, create high wage
• diversified economy, create high wage diversified economy, create high wage job<00:15:48.560>
• <00:26:51.600> job economy and create high wage job economy and create high wage job opportunities

Keywords: 912, senate, all

Summary: The Senate Committees on Economic Development and Tourism and on Transportation, Culture, and the Arts heard HCR 142, which urges the Hawaii Tourism Authority and Department of Transportation to expand the airport greetings program to display art in all neighbor island airports. Testimony from CARES supported the measure, emphasizing that public art and youth art competitions help educate keiki, strengthen cultural understanding, and support economic development through Hawaii’s creative industries. No one testified in opposition, and members raised no questions. Both committees recommended passage of HCR 142 unamended. The measure was adopted by voice vote in each committee, with some members excused. Later, the Senate Committee on Economic Development and Tourism heard HTR 102, which concerns translating the real estate salesperson exam into Japanese for timeshare-related sales. Supporters, including DBEDT and ARDA Hawaii, argued the change would help Japanese-speaking applicants, improve workforce recruitment, and support Hawaii’s timeshare industry and Japanese visitor market. A representative from APAC Hawaii supported the idea but suggested considering additional languages such as Korean, Chinese, and Filipino. Some senators questioned whether the proposal adequately addressed continuing education and long-term English proficiency, and the Real Estate Commission explained it does not currently issue a limited timeshare salesperson license and that the proposal would not restrict licensees from selling other real estate products. The committee also heard HCR 156, which asks the Hawaii Technology Development Corporation to increase its focus on advanced manufacturing and cybersecurity to support economic diversification, high-wage jobs, innovation, and national security. HTDC and the Hawaii Military Affairs Council supported the resolution, citing the recent federal discontinuation of the local Manufacturing Extension Partnership program, Innovate Hawaii, and the loss of related staff positions as reasons to reinforce state support. Testimony and discussion stressed cybersecurity, supply-chain resilience, automation, and the need to sustain manufacturing momentum in Hawaii. Both HTR 102 and HCR 156 were recommended for passage as is and were adopted by the committee, with some members excused.

Transcript Highlights:

• And then most of these jobs are in low-wage industries or in jobs that pay low wages.
• tiers. ...care, but are often in the kind of, you know, lowest-wage tiers in those industries.
• We do it by investing in training programs so residents can compete for in-demand, higher-wage jobs;
• , and that most of them are low-wage, low-paying jobs.
• Their average wage was about $100 an hour when you combine benefits and wages together.

Summary: The Assembly Committee on Economic Development, Growth, and Household Impact held an informational hearing in Paramount as part of its “Pocketbook Tour,” focused on affordability, cost pressures, and household impacts in Los Angeles County. The first panel centered on workers and learners, with testimony from the UCLA Labor Center and the Southeast Los Angeles County Workforce Development Board. Speakers described how rising living costs, tuition, and low wages force many students to work long hours, often in unrelated, low-wage jobs, while struggling with food, rent, bills, anxiety, and limited financial aid. Recommendations included expanding state-funded work study, creating a statewide internship tax credit for small businesses, improving financial aid formulas to reflect regional cost of living, increasing flexibility for students, and strengthening worker-rights education and career pathways. The second panel focused on microbusinesses and small business affordability. Testimony from microenterprise advocates, the Los Angeles Regional Small Business Development Center Network, and local business owners described rising commercial rents, labor costs, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, insurance, utilities, and disaster-related pressures as major threats to small businesses. Witnesses emphasized that small businesses are central to local economies and asked the state to expand technical assistance, low-interest financing, disaster support, supply-chain development, and community-based outreach. They also urged more intentional support for microbusinesses and home-based entrepreneurs, including networks that connect them to resources and help them build collective buying power. Committee members asked about possible state actions, including tax credits for hiring local workers or interns, support for trades and apprenticeships, and ways to partner more closely with SBDCs and chambers of commerce. Public comment echoed the hearing themes, with speakers highlighting student hardship, nonprofit mental health funding, renewable energy jobs and internships, and the need for state support for clean-energy incentives. No formal votes were taken; the hearing concluded with closing remarks and adjournment at 11:05 a.m.

Transcript Highlights:

• continuing their higher education, adult learners, and employers, building seamless pathways into high-wage
• still take care of their injured workers under injury benefit plans that pay medical expenses and wage
• This bill corrects an unintentional federal tax burden on wage replacement disability benefits when an
• In the past four years, our restaurants have paid approximately $730,000 in wage replacement costs to
• I'll be happy to address. to step up to pay wage replacement benefits for injured workers.

Summary: The subcommittee heard testimony on a broad agenda of workforce, labor, and workers’ compensation bills. HB 4676 would require political subdivision workers’ compensation networks to follow the same notice, access, and complaint rules as certified TDI networks; supporters said public employees and first responders deserve equal access to care, while municipal risk pool representatives opposed added regulation and said existing 504 networks already perform well. HB 4479 would create a rural workforce development grant program at TWC to support college-and-career readiness and local workforce alignment, and HB 3844 would define “opportunity youth” in state law to improve data, coordination, and access to services for disconnected young Texans; both drew strong support from rural, education, and chamber witnesses. HB 5545 would clarify federal tax treatment for wage-replacement benefits in non-subscriber injury benefit plans, with proponents calling it a win for employers and injured workers. HB 5118 would direct TWC and DIR to study AI and automated employment decision tools in hiring, including bias and oversight concerns. HB 1667 would move existing PTSD workers’ compensation language into a broader Labor Code chapter so more first responders, including state and campus officers, could qualify for benefits; supporters called it a technical fix to extend coverage more evenly across agencies. The committee also heard several first-responder and workers’ compensation bills. HB 2369 would speed up claims handling for injured first responders by allowing a single medical evaluation, giving carriers 60 days to accept or deny a claim, and letting workers seek treatment while disputes proceed; law enforcement supporters said it would help injured officers return to work faster, while opponents warned it would revive extent-of-injury waiver problems and increase litigation. HB 4483 would reclassify certain workers’ compensation maintenance taxes as surcharges to reduce retaliatory taxes imposed by other states on Texas-domiciled carriers, and HB 875, as revised by committee substitute, would create a small-project exception to municipal workers’ compensation and bonding requirements for certain low-value construction contracts in small cities; both were presented as cost-saving measures for Texas employers and local governments. HB 4415 would extend anti-retaliation protections for workers’ compensation claimants from first responders to all public employees and expressly waive sovereign immunity for those claims, with supporters describing it as closing a loophole that leaves public workers without the same remedy available in the private sector. The committee also took testimony on HB 5400, which would expand remedies for sexual harassment victims by removing the requirement to first file an administrative charge, extending the filing deadline from 300 days to two years, clarifying retaliation, and eliminating current damages caps. Supporters, including employment lawyers and a parent of a victim, said the current deadlines and caps prevent many survivors from obtaining counsel or full relief, especially younger workers and those in small workplaces or franchises. Across the agenda, witnesses repeatedly emphasized access to care, fair treatment for injured workers, rural workforce development, and stronger protections for vulnerable employees. After each bill was laid out and testimony heard, the chair generally closed the public hearing and left the bill pending; no final votes were taken, and the subcommittee adjourned after completing the agenda.

Transcript Highlights:

• They looked at cost and wage surveys.
• They looked at cost and wage surveys.
• <00:48:31.720> providers fast food wages and two allow providers fast food wages and two allow
• . 70% implementation supports about a $10-an-hour wage.
• supports about a $10-an-hour wage.

Keywords: 958, all

Summary: The Budget Review Subcommittee on Health and Family Services met with a quorum still coming together and first handled roll call and minutes. The main presentation came from the Department for Medicaid Services, with Commissioner Lisa Lee and CFO Steve Beckle giving an overview of Kentucky Medicaid, its federal-state financing structure, and the department’s 1915(c) home- and community-based waiver programs. They explained FMAP funding levels for traditional Medicaid, administration, IT, expansion adults, and CHIP, and noted the size of the program, including more than 600,000 Kentucky children eligible for Medicaid or CHIP, about 485,000 expansion adults, over 69,000 enrolled providers, and $18.5 billion in 2024 expenditures. A major focus was the waiver system, including the acquired brain injury waivers, model waiver, independence waiver, Michelle P. waiver, and Supports for Community Living waiver. The department said these waivers are intended to keep people with physical or developmental disabilities in home and community settings rather than facilities, and that many services are not covered by Medicare or commercial insurance. Officials described participant-directed services, interagency administration, and eligibility rules, including that some waiver programs use the child’s income only rather than family income. They also reported an unduplicated waiver wait list of 13,930 people and said the General Assembly had added waiver slots in the last budget, including 650 ABI slots and 1,275 more to be allocated July 1, 2025. The department also discussed a waiver rate study conducted by Guidehouse, explaining that CMS requires a defensible rate methodology because there is no Medicare or commercial benchmark for many waiver services. They said the study used cost and wage surveys, provider and stakeholder input, and aimed to improve transparency, provider stability, and rate parity. Officials reviewed prior COVID-era Appendix K rate increases and budget-driven increases, and said the budget ultimately funded rates at about 70% of the benchmark study, while preserving higher existing rates where needed so no provider would be cut. They highlighted larger differences in behavioral support and case management rates, and said a public report is available. Members asked several questions about the potential impact of federal FMAP changes, especially possible reductions in the enhanced match for expansion adults and Medicaid IT/admin activities. DMS said any FMAP reduction would require more state general fund dollars, estimating about $75 million for each 1% drop in the expansion match, while impacts on administrative IT funding would depend on the systems being built or implemented in a given year. Members also pressed for clarification on waiver wait-list procedures, funded versus filled slots, and what happens when someone on the wait list is later found ineligible. DMS said people on the wait list may not yet have been assessed, can be reevaluated if conditions change, and are still eligible for regular Medicaid state-plan services if they qualify, even if they are waiting for waiver services.

Transcript Highlights:

• had<00:30:06.159> a<00:30:06.399> lot<00:30:06.559> of We would collect a minimum
• can offer companies even for ones that can offer really<02:09:29.599> high<02:09:29.760> wages
• I<02:09:31.199> would<02:09:31.360> agree<02:09:31.679> that really high wages
• So I would agree that really high wages.
• million dollar, you know, minimum cap. million dollar, you know, minimum cap.

Keywords: 1189, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• We already have a $2 wage in the code, which means we have already acknowledged that there should be
• a wage paid.
• I think it makes sense for local governments to be able to determine what that wage is based upon...
• a wage paid.
• a wage paid.

Summary: The Assembly met on March 6, 2025, established a quorum, and opened with prayer, the Pledge of Allegiance, and routine procedural motions, including unanimous consent requests and a re-referral of AB 506. The chamber then moved through a series of guest introductions and second-reading items before taking up several resolutions recognizing awareness days and cultural observances. Members adopted ACR 41 on Down Syndrome Awareness Week/Day and HR 24 on Developmental Disabilities Awareness Month after extensive bipartisan remarks focused on family experiences, inclusion, bullying, funding for services, and support for people with disabilities. The Assembly also adopted ACR 48 recognizing Women in STEM Day, ACR 49 recognizing California STEM Robotics Day, HR 18 celebrating Nauruze, and ACR 2 marking the International Day for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. Each resolution drew co-authors and supportive comments from members across the aisle. The body then debated and passed AB 248, which would remove the state wage cap on county jail inmate labor and allow counties more discretion; supporters framed it as local control and rehabilitation, while opponents argued it would raise costs and conflict with voter sentiment. The Assembly also passed AB 100, a budget-process measure moving a large package of bills to the Senate, and used a substituted roll call for the remaining related bills. Consent calendar items were approved, and the chamber concluded with multiple adjournments in memory, including tributes to Eric Lopez, Johnny D. Giles, and Roger Diamond, before adjourning until March 24, 2025.

Transcript Highlights:

• Great wages and engaging in great jobs.
• The intention is what the taxpayers' money is for, which is why we have prevailing wage rates on these
• By the business, it does not come out of the employee's wages.
• To make higher wages if they can. So that's the part of labor, and that's competition as well.
• It's always a prevailing wage.

Transcript Highlights:

• California has other more effective tools to collect child support, such as wage garnishments, tax refund
• There is no minimum competency standard.
• expands access to care, preserving RDH licensure standards, and also provides stable and competitive wages

Summary: The committee heard a long agenda of bills, with members repeatedly noting the lack of quorum while testimony continued. AB 1693 by Assemblymember Zbur would streamline local permitting for retail tenant improvements by allowing qualified professional certifiers to review plans and requiring local action within set deadlines; the California Retailers Association supported the bill, citing lengthy permit delays, and there was no opposition. AB 2010 by Assemblymember Soria would expand access to high-volume spay and neuter services, including mobile clinics, to address pet overpopulation; supporters said it would improve access in rural and underserved areas, while opponents and the Veterinary Medical Board raised concerns about safety standards and asked for amendments. AB 2195 by Assemblymember Rodriguez would stop automatic occupational license suspensions for low-income parents behind on child support; supporters argued the policy is counterproductive and hurts earning capacity, while the California Child Support Association and others said license suspension is an effective enforcement tool that brings parents to the table. The committee also heard AB 2311 by Assemblymember Chiu, which would let public health care district hospitals directly employ physicians; supporters said it would improve recruitment and access to care, while medical groups warned about physician autonomy and institutional influence. AB 1796 by Assemblymember Jackson would create a licensure pathway for professional interior designers and add an interior designer to the California Architects Board; supporters framed it as a public safety and professional recognition measure, while opponents said it would create confusion, unnecessary regulation, and no demonstrated public harm. AB 1739 by Assemblymember Ward would make it a crime for clergy providing therapeutic services to engage in sexual contact with a counselee, closing a gap in existing law; it drew strong support from survivor advocates and no opposition. Finally, AB 2497 by Assemblymember Johnson began testimony on modernizing the physical therapy practice act, with the author noting committee amendments that removed imaging and other provisions, but the transcript cuts off before testimony or action on that bill was completed.

Transcript Highlights:

• California has other more effective tools to collect child support, such as wage garnishments, tax refund
• There is no minimum competency standard.
• expands access to care, preserves RDH licensure standards, and also provides stable and competitive wages

Keywords: 988, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• Every single person in this country should be able to have a good job, a living wage, affordable food
• Every single person in this country should be able to have a good job, a living wage, affordable food
• Pursuant to clause 9 of Rule 20, the Chair will reduce to five minutes the minimum time for any electronic

Keywords: U.S. House of Representatives Floor Proceedings on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, 1012, house, all

Transcript Highlights:

• And the bare minimum that goes with that is ADA compliance and fire suppression and some of these things
• It's bad enough that state workers' take-home pay is comparable to fast food wages.
• It's bad enough that state workers' take-home pay is comparable to fast food wages.

Bills: AB49, AB93, AB108, AB169, AB188, AB212, AB221, AB224, AB251, AB282, AB284, AB296, AB304, AB331, AB356, AB366, AB375, AB409, AB467, AB475, AB476, AB479, AB494, AB514, AB515, AB533, AB542, AB550, AB558, AB567, AB568, AB571, AB581, AB583, AB584, AB585, AB595, AB596, AB597, SB170, SB427, SB460, SB508

Keywords: educational personnel, teacher licensing, reciprocal licensure, provisional teaching, school counselors, school nurses, school social workers, state education standards, public employees, police officers, benefits, appropriation, law enforcement, outdoor education, recreation, grant program, environment, funding, health insurance, speech-language pathology

Transcript Highlights:

• Fund our public schools, pay teachers a living wage. Our kids and teachers deserve better.
• Fund our public schools, pay teachers a living wage. Our kids and teachers deserve better.
• the purpose is... ...is silent as to color, and the purpose, in my understanding, of DEP adopting minimum

Summary: The committee heard and acted on a long agenda of local, housing, education, construction, and claims bills. It first took up SB 1730 on affordable housing/Live Local changes, adopting an amendment that narrowed and clarified several provisions, including density, height, parking, attorney fees, and exclusions for certain protected areas, then reported the bill favorably. It also approved SB 1674, which clarifies that local investment restrictions cannot block Israel bonds, after a clarifying amendment. SB 140 on charter schools was reported favorably after significant debate over school conversion, teacher contracts, local control, and the use of surplus school property for housing or other public purposes; several speakers opposed it as harmful to public schools, while the sponsor said it preserved district authority and added options for municipalities and job creation. The committee also passed SB 96 and SB 4, two local claims bills, and SB 1714, which allows SHIP funds to help mobile home owners with lot rent and requires local housing plans to address mobile home park closures.

Transcript Highlights:

• $90 million of that is attributed to serving more people, and $310 million of that is attributed to wage
• $90 million of that is attributed to serving more people, and $310 million of that is attributed to wage
• And once all of the wage increases are in place and the differentials are in place, there will be some
• The entry wage at the end of the CBA will be $20.
• I will say that after the last CBA, the PCA program, you know, is providing a higher entry-level wage

Keywords: 995, all

Summary: The subcommittee met with MassHealth LTSS Chief Leslie Darcy to review the Personal Care Attendant (PCA) program and the legislative work group focused on its long-term sustainability and cost containment. Darcy and Charlie described the work group’s five meetings and three consensus recommendations: enforce the 66-hour overtime cap, address fraudulent activity in the PCA program, and eliminate MassHealth handling of PCA paperwork/administrative work for members without a live-in exemption because those members are subject to EVV. They explained EVV as an electronic visit verification system replacing paper timesheets, and noted the rollout is expected to be completed this fall. The group estimated about $7 million in savings from the consensus recommendations and agreed to continue meeting through June to consider additional ideas. Darcy presented data showing the PCA program served about 56,000 members in state fiscal year 2024 and has grown from $1.2 billion in FY20 to $1.6 billion in FY24, with projections near $2 billion by 2027. She said much of the growth is driven by wage increases and older adults using more services, and compared PCA costs with other LTSS programs. The discussion also covered overtime spending, the role of federal financial participation, and how Massachusetts’ PCA program differs from other states because it has no hard caps on hours or activities. Several members emphasized the program’s value for independent living and community participation, while also acknowledging the need to control growth without undermining services. Members asked about undocumented immigrants and MassHealth funding, and Darcy explained that some eligibility categories are state-funded only and do not receive federal matching funds. Another member asked about workforce recruitment and wage pressures; Darcy said recent collective bargaining agreements raised PCA wages, with some workers eventually reaching $25 per hour and the entry wage reaching $20. The group also discussed whether IADL hours are disproportionately high compared with ADL needs, and reviewed data suggesting potential savings if IADL hours were limited relative to ADL hours, though no consensus recommendation was made on that point. The meeting ended with approval of the prior minutes by roll call vote, an update that the next health equity informational hearing is scheduled for May 19, and a motion to adjourn carried unanimously.

Transcript Highlights:

• I see the annual wages on the right.
• It includes wages and salaries and fringe benefits.
• It includes wages and salaries and fringe benefits.
• The wage inflation affects overall inflation.
• But that wage growth is bifurcated.

Keywords: 1182, all

Summary: At the April meeting of the Finance Advisory Committee, staff presented an updated state revenue forecast that was more cautious than January’s because of heightened economic uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict and broader national risks. The general fund’s available resources were revised down from $577 million in January to $378 million in the April forecast, with the lower estimate driven by reduced revenue projections while spending assumptions were unchanged. Staff said the outlook depends heavily on how long the Middle East conflict lasts and noted that a prolonged disruption could weaken the forecast further, while a quick resolution could improve conditions. George Hammond of the University of Arizona gave a broad economic overview, highlighting geopolitical risk, elevated oil and gasoline prices, sticky inflation, weak Arizona job growth, and uncertainty around federal policy, tariffs, immigration, and AI-related investment. He said Arizona’s recent job growth has been very weak and concentrated mainly in health services, while most other sectors lost jobs, and he attributed much of the slowdown to low hiring rather than layoffs. He also discussed population growth, noting that Arizona remains above the national average but is increasingly dependent on net migration as natural increase slows, and he warned that housing affordability remains strained even as Phoenix inflation has moderated. Panelists generally echoed the cautious outlook but pointed to some offsets. Liz St. Clair said Arizona’s near-term revenues could benefit from tourism tied to spring training and the Final Four, though higher fuel costs could dampen discretionary spending. Other panelists noted that the federal policy environment, tariffs, and immigration changes are likely to restrain growth, while productivity gains, especially from technology and AI, may help businesses maintain output. Several members also discussed housing, saying single-family permits have fallen while rental supply has improved affordability, and they raised concerns about labor-force growth, wage disparities, and the reliability of recent employment data revisions. No formal votes or actions were taken.

Transcript Highlights:

• I see the annual wages on the right.
• It includes wages and salaries and fringe benefits.
• It includes wages and salaries and fringe benefits.
• The wage inflation affects overall inflation.
• But that wage growth is bifurcated.

Summary: The Finance Advisory Committee received an update on the state revenue forecast and broader economic conditions. Staff said the April forecast was more cautious than January’s, citing greater uncertainty from the Iran conflict and other macroeconomic risks. Available general fund resources for the four-year period were revised down from $577 million in January to $378 million in April, with no change to expenditure estimates. George Hammond of the University of Arizona then presented on the national, state, and local economy, emphasizing risks from geopolitical conflict, tariffs, federal policy uncertainty, labor supply constraints, and elevated housing costs. He said Arizona job growth had been weak and driven mainly by health care, while inflation in Phoenix remained moderate but shelter and consumer commodity prices were still elevated. He also noted that population growth is increasingly dependent on net migration as natural increase slows. Panelists generally echoed the cautious outlook. Liz St. Clair said Arizona’s near-term revenue outlook still had some support from tourism and a strong spring season, but rising fuel costs and the duration of the Middle East conflict could pressure discretionary spending and revenues. Jim Rounds argued the economy was likely headed for a soft landing, though he warned that federal borrowing, inflation, workforce shortages, and energy reliability remain concerns; he also criticized leaving the Rainy Day Fund unused. Danny Court said the housing market remains under pressure on the ownership side, while rental supply and industrial demand have been relatively strong, and he noted sticky inflation and immigration declines as additional risks. Doug Walls explained that large employment benchmark revisions were affecting Arizona’s job numbers, and said the latest report showed slower but more balanced growth, though labor force declines and a higher unemployment rate were concerning. Lorenzo Romero added that business activity appears resilient in the low-hire, low-fire environment, but warned about debt burdens, uneven wage growth, and ongoing uncertainty. No votes or formal actions were taken.